五矿期货贵金属日报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials made dovish statements after the game with the Trump administration, and the subsequent release of expectations for both fiscal and monetary expansion in the US will drive precious metal prices to strengthen again. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the loosening of monetary policy are difficult to change in the short - term. For international gold prices, a strategy of waiting for the price to fall and stabilize before buying on dips should be maintained, while the start of the silver market needs to wait for further dovish statements from the Fed. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Shanghai Gold fell 0.77% to 785.34 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.93% to 8217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.55% to 3330.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 1.43% to 33.34 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 99.60 [2] Fiscal Policy - The US House of Representatives' budget plan passed earlier this month lays the foundation for raising the debt ceiling and extending the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017". The reduction in the US government's revenue due to tax cuts cannot be filled by tariffs and expenditure control. The US fiscal deficit level will continue to expand during Trump's tenure. The US budget deficit in March was 160.5 billion US dollars, and the cumulative fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year (starting from October 2024) reached 1.3 trillion US dollars, a significant increase from 1.06 trillion in the same period last year [2] Monetary Policy - The Trump administration previously criticized the Fed's monetary policy, but Trump's attitude changed, saying he had no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell. Fed officials' subsequent attitude changes indicate that there are still conditions for monetary policy easing in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller made dovish statements and mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Hamark said that if economic data shows it is necessary, there is a possibility of monetary policy adjustment in June [2] Investment Strategy - For international gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips after the price falls and stabilizes, but there is still room for short - term price weakness. The start of the silver market needs to wait for further dovish statements from the Fed. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Summary - A detailed summary of gold and silver data including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, basis, and ETF holdings, as well as their daily changes and historical quantiles, is provided [6]