贵金属：美联储宽松预期的加速释放与白银价格的补涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the context of the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US dollar's credit, the gold price has been strong. Since the beginning of 2025 (from January 2 to April 25), the price of the COMEX gold main contract has risen by 26.1%, reaching a record high of $3,509.9 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US tariff policies and the Fed's persistently tight monetary policy stance have pressured the silver price, which has significantly underperformed gold. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a relatively high level. After the easing of the impact on the Fed's independence, the Fed has signaled a loose monetary policy. Around the Fed's June interest - rate meeting, the silver price may start a catch - up rally [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2010 QE2 Monetary Policy Expectations and the Rise of Silver Price to a Record High - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the significant rise of the silver price was often macro - driven by the "accelerated" release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, with the breakdown of the gold - silver ratio as the starting point on the trading chart. Before the start of the silver rally in early August 2010, the market's main expectation for the Fed's monetary policy was the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The Fed continuously cut interest rates after the September 18, 2007, interest - rate meeting, and the upper bound of the federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% to 0.25% after the December 16, 2008, meeting. The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $905.2 billion in early September 2008 to $2,325.3 billion in early August 2010 [4]. - In early June 2010, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified in the House Financial Committee, indicating that the US economic recovery faced significant risks and that the Fed would maintain policy flexibility and take action if necessary. This was his first indication of possible additional loose policies after the end of the first round of quantitative easing. The US dollar index rose from April to June 2010 due to the weak euro after the European debt crisis, reaching a peak on June 7 and then falling 6.02% to 83.15 by the end of August. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.01% on April 5, 2010, to 2.58% in mid - August. By the end of August 2010, both the Fed officials' statements and the trends of the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index pointed to further loose monetary policy on the balance - sheet level (the possibility of lowering the policy rate to negative was low). At the Jackson Hole central bank symposium at the end of August 2010, Bernanke confirmed the implementation of QE2 [5]. - After Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the gold - silver ratio broke down at the end of the triangular convergence, and the COMEX silver price rose after breaking through the convergence. From August 27, 2010, to April 29, 2011, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 156% to $48.6 per ounce, reaching a record high of $49.8 per ounce [6]. 3.2 2020 Pandemic Shock and the Concentrated Release of the Fed's Loose Monetary Policy - In March 2020, due to the large - scale community spread of the COVID - 19 in the US, the Fed under Powell's leadership implemented emergency interest - rate cuts. On March 15, 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate to 0% - 0.25% and restarted quantitative easing, promising to buy at least $700 billion of Treasury bonds and MBS per month. In the May 19, 2020, interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 0% - 0.25% and emphasized that the interest rate would remain low for a long time [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 1.86% on January 9, 2020, to 0.66% on June 30, 2020, due to the safe - haven drive of the pandemic and the Fed's loose stance. The US dollar index, which was strong at the beginning of the pandemic due to safe - haven factors, fell 5.1% from 102.7 on March 20 to 97.4 on June 30. By the end of June 2020, the Fed had implemented loose monetary policies in terms of both interest rates and the balance sheet, which were reflected in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index. In early July 2020, the gold - silver ratio formed a bear flag decline continuation pattern, and the COMEX silver main contract price had recovered from the low level and showed an ascending triangle pattern. In the July 2020 Fed interest - rate meeting, Powell emphasized the severe situation of the US economy and the need for monetary and fiscal policy support. The gold - silver ratio broke down the flag surface in July and reached 72.1 in early August. From June 30 to August 10, 2020, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 62% to $29.2 per ounce [12]. 3.3 Current Fed's Monetary Policy Stance Change and the Expected Repetition of the "Script" of Accelerated Loose Expectations - The Trump administration's radical tariff policies have increased the risk of a US economic recession and pushed up inflation. After the new US administration took office, Powell and other Fed officials took a hawkish stance. After the sharp correction of the US stock market on April 17, Powell was still cautious about interest - rate cuts, stating that the Fed would not conduct "market - rescue" operations. Trump criticized the Fed's monetary policy, and there were discussions about "removing Powell." However, at the end of April, Trump changed his attitude, and the US Treasury Secretary explained that Trump's remarks might refer to the end of Powell's term. Subsequently, Fed officials' attitudes changed, indicating that there was room for loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, and Cleveland Fed President Harker was more explicit about the possible adjustment time of monetary policy [14][17]. - From February 3 to April 25, 2025, the US dollar index fell 8.8% from 109.2 to 99.6, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.51% to 4.24%. These declines reflected the market's expectation of a US economic recession and the selling of US dollar assets. The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, September, October, and December interest - rate meetings, with the terminal interest - rate range reaching 3.25% - 3.50% at the end of the year [18]. - Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a high level above 100 and is gradually forming a top pattern. The COMEX silver main contract price has rebounded after the release of the negative impact of tariffs, showing a strong technical pattern. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech. Around the June interest - rate meeting, as the tariff policies have a substantial impact on the US economy, especially the labor market, Powell may gradually express his stance on interest - rate cuts. The breakdown of the gold - silver ratio will be the starting point of the silver rally, and the international silver price is expected to reach a record high [19].