信用债配置思路：把握波段机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of the year, banks have faced certain pressure on their liabilities. The central bank has a strong desire to maintain a tight balance of liquidity in the short - term, with the capital interest rate running higher than the policy rate. The market has re - priced the previously optimistic liquidity expectations. Currently, the yield of credit bonds is at a relatively low percentile since 2022, while the credit spread is relatively high. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, it can be inferred that interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts may not be urgent for the time being. The economic fundamentals are in a relatively good state, and the capital market may maintain a tight balance in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the possible impact of tariffs in the second quarter, domestic demand policies, monetary policies, stock market trends, and changes in the risk appetite of the bond market. The allocation value of credit bonds has become prominent after the valuation recovery. It is recommended to strengthen the flexibility of the portfolio and seize trading opportunities based on the expected timing of capital loosening [3][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Market Adjustment - Last week (April 18 - 25), the bond market adjusted. The 2 - 5 - year Treasury bonds had relatively large adjustment amplitudes, such as a 3.7BP adjustment for the 3 - year Treasury bond. Credit bonds also adjusted with a relatively larger amplitude. For example, among medium - term notes, the 3 - year AAA medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 5.5BP, the 10 - year AA + medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 6BP, and the 2 - year AA medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 6.3BP. Since April 7, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond has had the largest adjustment amplitude, while medium - term notes generally show that the longer the term, the larger the adjustment amplitude, and the valuations of many varieties within one - year have even slightly narrowed [2][10][12]. - As of April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - rated medium - term notes were 1.82%, 1.94%, and 2.04% respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + - rated medium - term notes were 1.9%, 2.1%, and 2.2% respectively. From April 7 to April 25, the credit spreads of credit bonds also slightly widened [11]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading Characteristics - Recently, the trading proportion of credit bonds within one - year has significantly increased, while the trading proportion of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased, especially for those over 5 - year. The trading proportion of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds has been relatively volatile and slightly decreased compared to March 2025. The reason may be that investors' credit bonds over 5 - year are generally issued by high - credit - rated and high - quality entities with relatively good liquidity, which are more likely to be sold during the adjustment period. The 3 - 5 - year period combines relatively short duration and many high - yield entities, making it the main range for market band trading [2][12]. 3.3 Individual Bond Analysis - The valuations of entities such as AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd., Zunyi Tourism Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., Guangxi Liuzhou Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Zoucheng City Assets Holding Group Co., Ltd. are mostly high, with large adjustment amplitudes. The valuations of many bonds of entities such as Jiangsu Hanrui Investment Holding Co., Ltd., China Resources Power Investment Co., Ltd., and Chongqing Longfor Enterprise Development Co., Ltd. have narrowed [2][13]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Investors can choose secondary perpetual bonds with better liquidity, urban investment bonds with good liquidity, central and state - owned enterprise real estate, central and state - owned enterprise energy materials, central and state - owned enterprise cultural and tourism bonds, and individual bonds with large previous adjustment amplitudes, and seize trading opportunities based on the expected timing of capital loosening [3][16]. - For institutions with high return requirements, they can focus on high - quality entities at the provincial level in Yunnan, the municipal level in Kunming, the provincial level in Shandong, and the municipal level in Weifang, as well as central and state - owned enterprise real estate and steel within three - year. Some entities have large previous adjustment amplitudes and can be appropriately deployed on the left side. They can also consider district and county entities in regions with strong debt - resolution efforts, such as districts and counties in Tianjin and Guangxi. In the cultural and tourism sector, some central and state - owned enterprise entities can be selected based on the support from shareholders [4][17].