光大期货硅策略月报-20250428

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Southwest's hydropower-rich season with lower electricity prices will drive production resumption, weakening the effect of northwest production cuts. Meanwhile, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out in May, with the lower support coming from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang manufacturers and the upper pressure from high inventory and marginal increments. - In May, the adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production is high, and the one - way decline space is limited. It will mainly show weak range - bound fluctuations, and opportunities for the convergence of near - and far - month price spreads can be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies are newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April, polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 39,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 11.67%. Industrial silicon futures also fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 8,865 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.73% [5]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices continued to decline. The Baichuan reference price was 10,178 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 502 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Price Spreads - In April, the price spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 2,110 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 65 yuan/ton [5][17]. 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, the estimated domestic industrial silicon production in April was 290,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. The monthly number of open furnaces decreased by 15 to 219, and the furnace opening rate decreased by 1.88% to 27.48%. In the north, large manufacturers in Xinjiang started maintenance, with 9 new furnace shutdowns in Xinjiang, 2 in Gansu, and 3 in Inner Mongolia. In the southwest, there was no change in the operation in Yunnan, and 2 furnaces were ignited in Sichuan silicon plants. In other regions, one furnace was shut down each in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Henan, and Liaoning [3][5]. 3.5 Demand - In April, polysilicon production decreased by 6,000 tons to 96,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%. The production of DMC increased by 10,800 tons to 167,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% and a month - on - month increase of 6.9%. The monthly price of P - type polysilicon remained stable at 33,800 yuan/ton, while the N - type decreased by 20,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The terminal rush - to - install subsided, the component market cooled down rapidly, downstream surplus materials were abundant, order delivery periods were postponed, and the pre - May Day stocking volume was low. The monthly price of organic silicon decreased significantly by 2,500 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers maintained a wait - and - see attitude during the tariff turmoil, with weak purchasing power. New orders from monomer plants were still mainly for essential and small - volume needs, and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly. Subsequently, they may return to the state of shutdown and maintenance [3][5]. 3.6 Inventory - On the exchange side, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 435 tons to 348,400 tons in April, while polysilicon inventory increased to 300,000 tons. In the social inventory, industrial silicon inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 409,100 tons, among which factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 244,100 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 52,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 65,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory remained stable at 48,000 tons. Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 26,770 tons [3][5].