煤化工策略月报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the delayed demand for urea is expected to be released, and the futures and spot prices have the potential to rebound further, but the upside of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. The long - term loose pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and the glass market needs more favorable drivers for a trend - upward movement [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - Futures Prices: As of April 25, the main contract of urea decreased by 4.51%, soda ash by 4.55%, and glass by 8.79% [11] - Futures - related Varieties: In April, the prices of related futures varieties showed a weak trend [16] - Coal Prices: The prices of some coal varieties such as Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal and Shaanxi Yulin bituminous coal decreased, while the price of Yangquan anthracite washed small pieces increased [17] - LNG Prices: The LNG ex - factory prices in some regions in China showed different degrees of change, with an increase in Inner Mongolia Sentai and a decrease in Shaanxi Hancheng [20] - Raw Salt Prices: In April, the prices of raw salt in most regions decreased slightly [22] - Synthetic Ammonia Prices: The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 5.69% in April [23] 3.2 Urea: Delayed Demand Expected to be Released in May, Focus on Realization Intensity - Prices: In April, the urea futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price declined after reaching a phased high. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1757 yuan/ton, and the prices in Shandong and Henan were 1830 yuan/ton and 1820 yuan/ton respectively [5] - Supply: In April, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level. As of April 25, the daily output was 19.30 tons, a 1.13% decrease from the end of March. There is an expectation of increased supply in May [5] - Inventory: In April, the urea inventory rebounded from the bottom. As of April 24, the enterprise inventory was 106.5 tons, a 22.72% increase from the end of March [5] - Demand: In April, the urea demand was lower than expected. The delayed demand in April may be released in May. The production levels of some downstream industries such as compound fertilizers decreased [5] - International Market and Exports: In April, the international urea price increased, but China's exports were still restricted. The export data in March was only 0.23 tons, a 45% year - on - year decrease [5] 3.3 Soda Ash: Market Sentiment Recovered Temporarily, Long - term Loose Pattern Remains Unchanged - Prices: In April, the soda ash futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly adjusted. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1365 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: Since late March, the soda ash supply has been increasing. As of the week of April 24, the industry's operating rate was 89.44%, and the production was 75.51 tons, a 9.4% increase from the end of March [6] - Inventory: In April, the soda ash enterprise inventory fluctuated narrowly. As of April 24, the inventory was 169.10 tons, a slight 0.33% increase from the end of March [6] - Demand: In April, the rigid demand for soda ash recovered. The downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass had changes in production capacity, and the weekly apparent consumption increased by 3.66% to 77.54 tons [6] - Imports and Exports: In March, the import volume of soda ash decreased by 41.71% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 28.34% month - on - month [6] 3.4 Glass: Fundamental Drivers Still Insufficient, Focus on Policy Intensity - Prices: In April, the glass futures price fluctuated downward, and the spot price rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1121 yuan/ton, and the domestic average price of float glass was 1280 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: In April, the glass supply fluctuated at a low level year - on - year. As of April 25, the daily melting volume was 15.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the end of March [8] - Inventory: In April, the glass enterprise inventory decreased slightly. As of the week of April 24, the inventory was 6547.3 million weight boxes, a 2.3% decrease from the end of March, still 9.25% higher year - on - year [8] - Demand: In April, the glass demand sentiment recovered temporarily. The downstream orders and operating rates continued to recover but at a slow pace [8] - Terminal and Policy: From January to March, the cumulative year - on - year decline of some real - estate indicators narrowed. Domestic real - estate and consumption - promotion policies are expected to support the glass market, but the implementation time and intensity need verification [9]