Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, May 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Based on the logic of marginal oversupply and a downward - moving cost center, it is advisable to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption rhythm in the southwest on alumina inventory dynamics. The macro - risk pricing ratio remains relatively high due to the vacillating US attitude towards tariffs on China and the possible shift in Fed policies. Aluminum demand lacks resilience after a slow decline, and inventory may reach an inflection point for accumulation. Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with the spread between June and September having room to converge. Attention should be paid to the effects of domestic stimulus policies, tariff dynamics, and the resumption progress in Yunnan [3]. Summary by Directory Price - In April, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,846 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 3.1%. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20,030 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 2.2% [5]. Spread - In April, the alumina shifted from a premium of 146 yuan/ton to a premium of 26 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum shifted from par to a discount of 10 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in April, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina decreased to 8,288 tons, with a production of 7.17 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 4,390 tons, with a production of 3.57 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The molten aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73% [3][5]. Demand - As the peak season is approaching its end, the cable sector is showing a late - stage boost while other sectors are gradually weakening. In April, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25% compared to March. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1.85% to 68.65%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 2.14% to 73.43%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.75% to 58.88%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 5.7% to 62.2%. The processing fees of aluminum rods increased across the board by 100 - 250 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of aluminum bars were stable with some increases, with Wuxi remaining stable and other regions increasing by 20 - 160 yuan/ton [3][5]. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in April, alumina inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 236,900 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 42,800 tons to 190,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 53,000 tons to 423,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 55,000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 169,000 tons to 658,000 tons; aluminum bar inventory decreased by 94,200 tons to 177,800 tons [3][5].
铝策略月报-20250428
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-04-28 07:55