碳酸锂月度策略报告-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate may continue to be weak on both sides. If there is no large - scale production halt or reduction, the price outlook remains pessimistic. The supply may decline month - on - month in May due to previous price drops leading to upstream production cuts, but new projects are coming on - stream, and the cost of mines/integrated projects has decreased significantly in the past two quarters. On the demand side, factors such as tariff concerns, high downstream inventory, and the fact that the increase in battery - end demand mainly digests positive electrode inventory rather than drives new production all limit demand growth [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped by 2.8%. Lithium ore and lithium salt prices declined, while cathode material prices showed a mixed trend. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 70,180 yuan/ton to 68,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped from 808 dollars/ton to 793 dollars/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 259 tons to 131,864 tons. Upstream inventory increased by 270 tons to 52,400 tons, inventory in other links decreased by 1,100 tons to 36,641 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,089 tons to 42,823 tons [6][14]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and other related profits, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [20][21]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - The import volume charts of lithium concentrate from different countries (Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.) are presented, and the production data of Chinese sample mica + spodumene (LCE) are also shown. For example, in March 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) was 13,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent), and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines was 3,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent) [22][24][26]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 488 tons to 16,900 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 390 tons to 8,743 tons, lithium extraction from lithium mica decreased by 100 tons to 3,527 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 20 tons to 2,923 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling decreased by 18 tons to 1,707 tons [4][6][29]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts of lithium hydroxide production by process, capacity, and import - export are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [43][44]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts of lithium hexafluorophosphate production, export, and monthly operating rate are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [45][46][47]. 3.4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts of waste lithium - battery recycling volume are presented, showing the recycling volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste [51][52]. 3.5 Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons. Charts of production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary precursors and ternary materials are presented [6][56][57]. 3.6 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 3,000 tons to 94,110 tons. Charts of lithium iron phosphate operating rate, capacity, production, and cost are presented [6][59]. 3.7 Other Materials - Charts of the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide are presented [60][61]. 3.8 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh. Among them, lithium iron - based cells increased by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh, and ternary cells increased by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [6][63]. 3.9 Lithium Batteries - Charts of lithium battery production, installation volume, and inventory by type (iron - lithium, ternary, etc.) are presented [66][67][69][71]. 3.10 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 530,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [4][6][72]. 3.11 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors are presented [75][80][82]. 3.12 Options - Charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes of lithium carbonate are presented [85][88][89].