股指期货策略早餐-20250428

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures: The intraday view is a sideways - up trend with IM being relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a build - up for an upward movement. The core logic includes the government's determination to stabilize the capital market and the focus on technology - related industries [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The intraday view is a narrow - range sideways movement with caution on long - bond corrections, and the medium - term view is a high - level sideways movement. The core logic involves the adjustment of policy emphasis and the movement of interest rates [2][4]. - Commodity Futures and Options - Copper: The intraday view is a price range between 76,500 and 78,200, and the medium - term view is a range between 66,000 and 90,000. The market is supported by supply - demand tightness but suppressed by the dollar's rebound [5][6][7]. - Industrial Silicon: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 8,700 - 8,900, and the medium - term view is a downward - pressured movement in the range of 8,500 - 9,300 due to supply surplus [9]. - Polysilicon: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 38,000 - 38,500, and the medium - term view is a low - level movement in the range of 35,000 - 40,000 because of supply surplus [10][11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 67,800 - 68,300, and the medium - term view is a movement around the production cost in the range of 65,000 - 75,000, affected by low spot prices, high supply, and high inventory [12][13]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM - Reference Strategy: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL - Reference Strategy: Close out long positions of T2506 and TL2506 trading accounts [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - Copper - Supply: Codelco's Q1 output was 296,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, aiming for 1.37 - 1.4 billion tons this year. Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 output was 170,600 tons, up 15.65% year - on - year [5]. - Demand: In March, auto production and sales increased significantly, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also had high growth rates. The Q1 power grid investment was 95.6 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year [5]. - Inventory: On April 25, LME copper inventory increased by 25 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and inventory decreased [6]. - Reference Strategy: Adopt a sideways trading approach [7]. - Industrial Silicon - Supply: In March, China's industrial silicon output was 342,200 tons, down 6.57% year - on - year [9]. - Demand: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [9]. - Inventory: As of April 18, the social inventory was 611,000 tons, still at a high level [9]. - Reference Strategy: Hold the short position of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures [9]. - Polysilicon - Supply: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [10]. - Demand: In March, China's silicon wafer output was 50.76GW, down 30.44% year - on - year [11]. - Inventory: As of April 20, the social inventory was 251,000 tons, indicating obvious supply surplus [11]. - Reference Strategy: Hold the short position of PS2506 - C - 47000 [10]. - Lithium Carbonate - Spot Price: On April 25, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped to 69,700 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - year low [13]. - Supply: In March 2025, the production capacity was 7,285 tons, up 93% year - on - year. In February 2025, battery - grade and industrial - grade production also increased [13]. - Inventory: As of March 31, the total inventory was 90,070 tons, at a high level within the year [13]. - Reference Strategy: Hold the short position of LC2507 - C - 83000 [12].