沪铜报告：沪铜报告假期避险情绪上升，铜多单止盈兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching May Day holiday, market risk - aversion sentiment is rising. Trump's tariff policy is at a dead - end, and the expectations of domestic and overseas interest rate cuts have been dashed. It is recommended to take profits on short - term copper long positions [6]. - In the short term, gradually take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, as Sino - US competition enters a new stage and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, there is confidence in the long - term upward trend of copper prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Economy - US Economic Data and Policy Expectations: In April, the US PMI reached a 16 - month low (composite PMI 51.2), and the consumer confidence index plunged to 50.8. Due to Trump's compromise and the dovish stance of Fed officials, the probability of a June interest rate cut increased from 60% to 65% [11]. - Trump's Tariff Policy Changes: Trump first publicly stated his friendliness towards China, admitted that the 145% tariff was too high, and announced a tax cut decision. The Trump administration plans to significantly reduce the current 145% tariff on Chinese goods to the 50% - 65% range, with direct tax cuts and tiered tariff options. The tiered tariff plan has a 5 - year transition period [12]. - China's Response to US Tariffs: China denied negotiations on tariffs, imposed a 125% retaliatory tariff on the US, covered multiple fields, initiated an industrial competitiveness investigation, and sued the US at the WTO. China has also adjusted imports in various industries in response to tariff impacts [13][14]. - Domestic Economic Policy: The Politburo meeting emphasized stability. The LPR rate has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates after the Fed's possible June rate cut [6][22]. 3.2盘面情况 - Price Movements: This week, the overall center of copper prices moved up. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% compared to last Friday. The price difference between COMEX and LME copper widened to $1303/ton [26]. - Market Structure: As of April 25, the spot - to - futures spread of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper was 760 yuan/ton. Shanghai copper maintained a Back structure, while overseas COMEX copper maintained a contango structure. The latest LME copper spot premium was $6.43/ton, and the far - month premium was $27/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper premiums also showed certain levels [29][33]. - Investment and Trading Data: The net long positions of LME copper investment funds increased by 5.21% month - on - month, while the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX copper decreased by 19.65% month - on - month. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper expanded to 110,000 lots, and the open interest decreased to 165,900 lots [37][41]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate: Global copper concentrate production is expected to reach 23.35 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.08%. China's copper concentrate self - sufficiency rate is about 21.31%. Recently, copper concentrate supply disturbances have increased, and port inventories have decreased. The processing fees for copper concentrates have reached new lows [47][50][53]. - Refined Copper: Global refined copper production is expected to reach 27.47 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.47%. In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.04% and a year - on - year increase of 12.27%. Some overseas smelters have shut down [64][67]. - Scrap Copper: The price difference between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the substitution effect of scrap copper is emerging. However, due to the impact of Sino - US tariffs, the supply of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the overall market supply is tight [70]. - Demand Side - Power Sector: From January to March, grid project investment reached 95.6 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in the first three months reached 59.71GW, with a year - on - year increase of 30.05% [80]. - Automobile Sector: Driven by policies, the demand for automobiles has been further released. In the week of April 20, the retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars was 113,962, with a year - on - year increase of 25.84% [77]. - Home Appliance Sector: Stimulated by the "Golden March and Silver April" and the trade - in policy, the demand for home appliances has exceeded expectations. The scheduled production of air conditioners from April to June has a year - on - year growth rate of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% respectively [83]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro Environment: Trump released signals of tariff easing, and Fed officials took a dovish stance, increasing the probability of a June interest rate cut. The LPR rate in China has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the market risk - aversion sentiment will rise during the upcoming May Day holiday [96]. - Fundamentals: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances continue, and copper concentrate processing fees reach new lows. Demand shows resilience, but due to copper price fluctuations and US tariff policies, enterprise order expectations are cautious. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have been decreasing for 8 consecutive weeks [96]. - Suggestions: In the short term, take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices [96].