减产预期重启，盘面利润走扩

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Friday night's restart of production cut expectations led to simultaneous increases in steel futures and spot prices, as well as margin on the trading floor. Currently, the output of listed steel products is rising, while consumption has weakened month - on - month, mainly in building materials and sheet products. Attention should be paid to the rapid narrowing of the hot - cold spread and its potential impact on the weakening demand for hot - rolled coils. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, but it is not prominent at present. Market sentiment has improved compared to the previous period. In the short term, prices will fluctuate and consolidate. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between the flat - rate and off - peak electricity costs of electric furnaces. Considering significant policy disturbances, caution is advised for unilateral participation. A strategy to focus on the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the far - end contracts can be considered [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of April 24, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 3.13 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons. The apparent demand was 926.25 tons, down 22.39 tons month - on - month. As of April 25, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3069 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 121 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 71 yuan/ton. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3300 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3140 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar at flat - rate electricity was about - 200 yuan/ton, and at off - peak electricity was about - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared to 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared to 2023. From January to March 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel output was 259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - As of April 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points from April 18, and the daily average pig iron output was 244.4 tons, an increase of 4.23 tons [51]. - As of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 53.8 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.6 tons per day, an increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16 tons, a decrease of 0.75 tons. The daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 51.4 tons, an increase of 4.95 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 527.8 tons, an increase of 6.97 tons or 1.3% [5]. - This week, the original sample rebar output was 229.11 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 202.4 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons, and the short - process output was 26.71 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons [66]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of April 24, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 926.25 tons, a decrease of 22.39 tons month - on - month [5]. - The real - estate 30 - city sales high - frequency data shows that the real - estate market continues to be sluggish, which has a negative impact on steel demand [78]. - The national cement mill operating rate has declined. The average national cement mill operating rate was 49.04%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points from the previous week, and the decline rate widened by 1.49 percentage points, indicating insufficient demand [77]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of April 24, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased. The factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons [5]. - This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 193.73 tons, a decrease of 6.67 tons, the social inventory was 508.6 tons, a decrease of 24.16 tons, and the total inventory was 702.33 tons, a decrease of 30.83 tons [82]. - This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 317.5 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons. The apparent demand was 324.36 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 6.86 tons, the social inventory remained flat, and the total inventory decreased by 6.86 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Price - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [4]. - As of April 27, the hot - cold spread in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton [92]. 3.2.5 Export - As of April 25, the FOB export price of China was 457 US dollars, and the export profit was + 6.6 US dollars, a decrease of 4.1 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 294.99 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons [95].