Report Title - Black Metal Monthly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - April 28, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Recently, the expectation of crude steel production cuts has restarted, putting pressure on the far - end iron ore prices and widening the disk profit. Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing. The data shows that the shipments of mainstream Australian mines have increased significantly, and the overall shipments from Brazil have also increased with the recovery of VALE's shipments. The global volume has clearly increased and returned to the high level of the same period in history. On the demand side, the pig iron output has increased more than expected this period, and the port inventory has increased month - on - month. The far - end price is suppressed by the production cut expectation and is weaker than the near - month price. Strategically, the pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term may continue, and cautious operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Fundamentals and Conclusions - Price: In April, the spot prices of iron ore decreased, with the decline ranging from 1 to 28 yuan. As of April 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $99.2, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 841 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.28. The optimal delivery product is BRBF powder, with a latest quotation of about 772 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 777 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [5]. - Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased month - on - month and is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,781 tons, an increase of 231 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 829.44 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. - Supply - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,188.2 tons, an increase of 262.7 tons month - on - month. From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 tons, an increase of 320.7 tons month - on - month. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 tons, an increase of 196.0 tons month - on - month, and the amount shipped to China was 1,647.2 tons, an increase of 72.9 tons month - on - month. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 tons, an increase of 124.6 tons month - on - month [6]. - Supply - Arrival: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,679.6 tons, an increase of 230.4 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,512.8 tons, an increase of 187.5 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,159.3 tons, a decrease of 34.3 tons month - on - month [6]. - Demand: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 244.35 tons/day, an increase of 4.23 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 19.2 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 15.6 tons/day year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output will fluctuate slightly in the next period [8]. - Conclusion: The expectation of crude steel production cuts has put pressure on the far - end iron ore prices, and the strategy may continue the pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term, with cautious operation recommended [9] Part 2: Data Sorting - Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price: Details of brand premiums (discounts), chemical indicators, and quality premiums of various iron ore varieties are provided, with BRBF as the optimal delivery product and Newman powder as the second - best [14][15]. - Iron Ore Inter - period: Charts show the inter - period spreads of iron ore contracts such as 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 [16][17]. - Iron Ore Import Profit: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - High - Low Grade Price Difference: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - Premium Index: Premium index trends of 62.5% lump ore and 65% pellets from 2020 to 2025 are presented [26] - Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory: Inventory trends of various iron ore brands (such as PB powder, Newman powder, etc.) at 15 ports and their premium (discount) trends from 2020 to 2025 are shown [28] - Steel Mill Sintered Powder Ore Inventory: As of April 25, 2025, the imported sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1,269 tons, a slight increase; the domestic sintered powder ore inventory was 84 tons, a slight decrease; the average inventory days of imported ore increased [31] - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption: As of April 25, 2025, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9,073.0 tons, an increase of 20.11 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption was 301.4 tons, an increase of 3.29 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [34] - Port Inventory, Berthing: The total port inventory at 45 ports, berthing ship numbers, and inventory of Australian and Brazilian ores at 45 ports from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37] - Port Inventory - By Ore Type: As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased, the inventory of pellet ore and iron concentrate powder increased, and the inventory of coarse powder increased [40] - Surcharge: Surcharge data from 2020 to 2025 are presented, but some data are missing [44] - Iron Ore Import Quantity: Import volume trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025 are presented [47][48][50] - Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume: The monthly average shipment volume of Australian iron ore to the world and to China from 2021 to 2025 is presented, and the shipment data on April 25, 2025, show an increase compared with April 18, 2025 [56][57] - Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume: The monthly average shipment volume of Brazilian iron ore to the world from 2021 to 2025 is presented, and the shipment data on April 25, 2025, show an increase compared with April 18, 2025 [61][62] - Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume: The shipment volume data of the four major mines (Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG) to China on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the total shipment volume increasing compared with April 18, 2025 [63] - Iron Ore Arrival: The arrival volume data of 45 ports and northern ports on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the 45 - port arrival volume increasing and the northern port arrival volume decreasing compared with April 18, 2025 [70] - Freight Rate: Freight rate trends of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025 are presented [72] - Domestic Ore Production (Estimated): The inventory and production data of iron concentrate powder in mines on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the inventory decreasing by 6.94% and the production decreasing by 2.11% compared with April 18, 2025 [76][77] - Steel Mill Powder Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization: As of April 25, 2025, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.6%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder increased slightly [78] - Pig Iron Output: The daily average pig iron output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025 are presented [85] - Global Pig Iron Output: Pig iron output trends of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025 are presented [88] - Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output: Pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 are presented, with the data on April 25, 2025, showing a decrease compared with the same period last year [93]
黑色金属月报：铁矿：关注减产政策，远端矿价承压-20250428
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-04-28 08:52