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生猪养殖行业月报点评:3月行业超卖明显,猪价底部或仍有支撑250420
CMS·2025-04-28 08:10

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, highlighting their cost advantages and strong performance capabilities [3][58]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with seasonal price weakness in pig prices, but overall performance is better than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom of pig prices remains supported [1][58]. - In March 2025, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed pig companies reached 17.69 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [40][58]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of breeding sows is expected to grow slowly in 2024, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025. The cost variance among different farming entities remains significant, allowing high-quality pig companies to achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [58]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.6 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease year-on-year and month-on-month. The price of piglets was 610 yuan/head, reflecting a year-on-year increase [11][15]. - The profitability of pig farming continues to narrow, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 yuan/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. - Sample companies showed significant overselling in March, with actual sales exceeding planned sales by 6.8%. The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally, indicating a rise in storage willingness among slaughter enterprises [23][58]. Section 2: Sales Growth and Piglet Volume - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in March 2025 was 17.69 million, with a notable increase in piglet sales, which reached 2.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][41]. - The average weight of pigs sold in March was 124 kg, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by the narrowing price gap [55][58]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is expected to maintain support at the bottom price level, with a focus on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance capabilities. The recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui Co [58].