金属周期品高频数据周报：热轧与螺纹钢价差处于近5个月新低-20250428

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel has reached a new low in the past five months, indicating potential market shifts [3]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has deteriorated, with the BCI index dropping by 7.24% month-on-month in April 2025 [12]. - The construction and real estate sectors are showing mixed signals, with cement weekly operating rates at a five-year high, while new construction area in real estate has decreased by 24.40% year-on-year for the first three months of 2025 [23][76]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% from the previous month [12]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [12]. - The London gold spot price decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous week [12]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The weekly operating rate for cement is at a five-year high [23]. - Price changes this week include rebar up 2.24%, cement price index down 0.65%, and iron ore up 0.65% [23]. - The new construction area in real estate for January to March 2025 has a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.40% [23]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a high level compared to the same period last year [2]. - Major commodity prices this week show cold-rolled steel down 1.99%, copper up 2.46%, and aluminum up 1.06% [2]. - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 78.11%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. Price Relationships - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 60 CNY/ton, a decrease of 45.5% [10]. - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.12 this week [3]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 230 CNY/ton, up 4.55% from last week [3]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in March 2025 is 49.00%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates in China is 1122.40 points, up 1.03% [3]. - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 74.90%, down 0.30 percentage points [3]. Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 0.38%, with the commercial vehicle sector performing best at +4.84% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent regulatory changes [4].