Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-28 09:26Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 28 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [4] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Closing price of PVC: 4989 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [3] - Trading volume of PVC: 722152 lots, up 102224 lots [3] - Open interest of PVC: 910259 lots, down 33564 lots [3] - Long positions of top 20 futures holders: 747268 lots, down 8122 lots [3] - Short positions of top 20 futures holders: 812035 lots, down 28438 lots [3] - Net long positions of top 20 futures holders: - 64767 lots, up 20316 lots [3] Spot Market - East China PVC (ethylene method): 5075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - East China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4809.23 yuan/ton, up 3.08 yuan [3] - South China PVC (ethylene method): 5070 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - South China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4865 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - China PVC CIF: 700 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Southeast Asia PVC CIF: 670 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Northwest Europe PVC FOB: 785 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - PVC basis: - 209 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - Calcium carbide (Central China): 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (North China): 2806.67 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (Northwest China): 2588 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Liquid chlorine (Inner Mongolia): 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - VCM CFR Far East: 529 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - VCM CFR Southeast Asia: 546 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Far East: 201 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Southeast Asia: 211 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - PVC capacity utilization rate: 78.63%, up 1.28% [3] - PVC (calcium carbide method) capacity utilization rate: 78.64%, down 0.71% [3] - PVC (ethylene method) capacity utilization rate: 78.61%, up 6.52% [3] - Total PVC social inventory: 42.06 tons, down 2.08 tons [3] - East China PVC social inventory: 38.12 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - South China PVC social inventory: 3.94 tons, down 0.68 tons [3] Downstream Situation - National real - estate climate index: 93.96, up 0.16 [3] - Cumulative new housing construction area: 12996.46 square meters, up 6382.46 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate construction area: 613705.44 square meters, up 7733.44 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate development investment: 11002.02 billion yuan, up 4891.31 billion yuan [3] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of PVC: 15.81%, up 0.3% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility of PVC: 14.63%, up 0.12% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.76% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.75% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On April 28, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4750 - 4860 yuan/ton [3] - From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [3] - As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3] Group 4: Core View - V2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 4989 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% month - on - month to 78.63%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.07% month - on - month to 48.16%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.62% month - on - month to 49.06%, and the profile operating rate remained stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue the upward trend. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are waiting and seeing due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up of PVC [3] - In terms of cost, this week, the calcium carbide supply in some areas has recovered, but power - rationing factors still exist; the downstream of ethylene US dollar goods is actively inquiring, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The support level of V2509 is around 4900, and the resistance level is around 5060 [4]