瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of the previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. The alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline, non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation. Some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2441 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume is 203,146 lots (a decrease of 13,391 lots), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 22,410 lots, the futures trading volume is 323,072 lots (a decrease of 166,542 lots), the closing price of the January contract is 2433 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2401 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 95 yuan/ton) [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton [3] 4. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 400 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 75 yuan/ton) [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton [3] 6. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the national chlor - alkali device had both maintenance and capacity increase, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. The domestic alumina start - up rate continued to decline, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 1.05% to 77.17%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.89% to 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons last week, still at a relatively high level in the same period. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline. The non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the liquid caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3]