烧碱周报：价格偏弱运行，关注下方支撑-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro Aspect: Domestic important meetings have released positive policy signals, and the negative impact of US tariffs has weakened. Market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation [4]. - Supply - demand Aspect: It is expected that the previously overhauled plants will resume production this week. The market's end - of - month settlement prices are gradually released, and demand for restocking has slowed down. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to be weak and stable. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. To keep inventory levels stable, some enterprises have offered discounts on sales, which is reasonable [4]. - Overall Logic: The weak operation of alumina prices continues to have a negative feedback effect on caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the cost - end support below. Caustic soda may be weak and consolidate at a low level this week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has weakened again. The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated steadily. From April 18th to April 24th, the price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 820 yuan/ton to 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; the price of 50% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda dropped from 1460 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The prices of other products such as raw salt, flake caustic soda, and light soda ash remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - Futures Market: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures (active contracts) compared with soda ash, alumina, PVC futures, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply Side: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Affected by newly added overhaul plants in Northwest, Central, and South China, the load decreased, while the load in North and Southwest China increased after the overhaul of plants ended. In Shandong, there were both复产 and减产 enterprises, and the复产 capacity was greater than the减产 capacity, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 4.0% to 91%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will rise to about 84%, and the weekly output will be about 809,500 tons [20]. - Downstream - Alumina: There were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market during the week. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production after the overhaul, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24th, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.97% (+ 0.23%) [25]. - Inventory Side: As of April 24th, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased month - on - month, while those in North, East, and South China decreased month - on - month [29]. - Liquid Chlorine: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25%. At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, but downstream enterprises carried out plant overhauls due to profit shrinkage, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, poor trading atmosphere, and mostly lower prices. The price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu also decreased following the trend in Shandong, with the current mainstream price at around - 250 yuan/ton. The downstream operating rate was not high, and purchases were made on demand. The mainstream price in Anhui was - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC market continued to operate weakly [32]. - Chlor - alkali Cost and Profit: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. During the week, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased slightly, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].