铜铝周报：铜铝有所回暖，警惕假期风险-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: Positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain negative. After the copper price fell from its high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 24, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4]. - Overall Logic: Trump's tariff remarks are volatile, market sentiment has eased, and the copper price has rebounded to fill the gap. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new macro - level positive support, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level, the start - up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, social inventories are in a seasonal destocking cycle, and aluminum product exports have declined significantly. Attention should be paid to domestic demand support [6]. - Overall Logic: The negative impact of US tariff increases has gradually been released. There are no major contradictions in the aluminum fundamentals. This week, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the gap position above, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [6]. Alumina - Macro: Similar to copper and electrolytic aluminum, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [8]. - Fundamentals: As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 740,000 tons. Due to recent concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, and the spot supply of alumina has tightened [8]. - Overall Logic: The spot price of alumina has stopped falling recently, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. A bearish outlook should be maintained in the medium term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Copper Market: The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 78,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various copper futures contracts also showed increases. LME copper prices and inventories also had corresponding changes [15]. - Aluminum Market: The average price of aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 20,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various aluminum futures contracts increased, and LME aluminum inventories increased [15]. - Alumina Market: The alumina spot price index was 2,897 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The average prices of alumina in different regions also had small increases [15]. - Weekly News: In the first quarter, 11,906 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 91.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming operations after an accident. The aluminum industry companies generally had good performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and business rules of cast aluminum alloy [17]. 3.2 Macro Analysis On April 25, 2025, the Politburo meeting proposed new measures in central government leverage, consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and employment, aiming to promote economic development [19]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - Spot Market: The processing fee TC continued to decline. The spread between refined and scrap copper, import profit, and other indicators also showed corresponding trends [25]. - Futures Market: The net long positions in COMEX copper increased [28]. - Overseas Market: The US dollar index rebounded, which had an impact on LME copper prices, spreads, and inventories [32]. - Inventories: As of April 24, the social copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, achieving eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise to 81.81% this week [36]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - Domestic Market: The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum converged. The spreads between different aluminum products and the import profit also showed corresponding changes [42]. - Foreign Market: The US dollar index rebounded, affecting LME aluminum prices, spreads, and net positions of different institutions [44]. - Weekly Inventories: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod, and the inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME all showed different trends [46]. - Downstream Start - up: As of April 24, the overall start - up rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different performance, and the start - up rate is expected to decline slightly this week [48]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were affected by the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and power coal [53]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - Spot Market: The domestic alumina spot price has stopped falling. The prices of alumina in different regions and related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda also showed corresponding trends [56]. - Futures Market: The inventory of alumina futures remained at a high level. The basis and the relationship between alumina futures prices and other related futures prices also had corresponding changes [59]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina increased. On the demand side, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [62]. - Cost and Profit: The cost pressure on alumina enterprises is relatively high. As of April 24, the industry cost was 3,337.48 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was - 445.73 yuan/ton [65].