纸浆：供需僵持，浆价区间震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The industry inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The fundamentals are difficult to drive. It is expected that the main pulp futures contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5260 - 5520 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review - Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulps such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of hardwood pulps like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine decreased, with declines ranging from 2.25% - 3.41% [10]. - The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, natural pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp in South China, bamboo pulp in Southwest China, and reed pulp in Northeast China were all unchanged compared with the previous week [13]. - Pulp Futures Price Review - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2507 fluctuated horizontally within a range of about 110 points. It finally closed at 5376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (or +0.26%) for the week. The trading volume was 950,000 lots, an increase of 195,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 122,000 lots, a decrease of 22,200 lots [15]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison - Due to the fact that the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was slightly smaller than the increase in the pulp futures price last week, the futures - spot basis discount slightly decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 974 yuan/ton, a reduction of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [19]. - Log Futures Price Review - The main log futures contract 2507 showed a downward - fluctuating trend last week. It finally closed at 796.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 26.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 3.16%) compared with the previous week's closing price. The trading volume was 136,000 lots, an increase of 77,200 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 31,200 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production - Last week, the pulp production was 465,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons (or +0.93%). Among them, the hardwood pulp production was 181,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,100 tons (or +3.47%), and the chemical mechanical pulp production was 202,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons (or - 0.59%). It is expected that the domestic hardwood pulp production this week will be about 201,000 tons, and the chemical mechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - Capacity Utilization Rate - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 67.16%, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 85.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [26]. - In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 81.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% [33]. - Monthly Pulp Production - In March 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.213 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,500 tons (or +11.68%); the wood pulp production was 1.8549 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 182,000 tons (or +10.88%); the hardwood pulp production was 977,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76,800 tons (or +8.52%); the chemical mechanical pulp production was 877,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 105,200 tons (or +13.63%) [28]. - Production Profit - In March 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 1,300.05 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.91 yuan/ton (or - 2.91%), and a year - on - year decrease of 705.72 yuan/ton (or - 35.18%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 213.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 yuan/ton [34]. - Pulp Imports - In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,100 tons (or +0.9%), and a year - on - year increase of 79,100 tons (or +2.50%). From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons (or +5%) [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Market Capacity Utilization and Production - Living Paper Market: Last week, the domestic living paper production was 293,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 1.01%); the capacity utilization rate was 66.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In March 2025, the domestic living paper production was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons (or +10.2%), and a year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons (or +11.92%); the capacity utilization rate was 69.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% [40][60]. - Cultural Paper Market: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The offset paper production was 196,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons (or +0.05%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. In March 2025, the domestic cultural paper offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons (or +16.17%), and a year - on - year decrease of 84,000 tons (or - 8.88%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.41%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons (or +16.22%), and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons (or - 11.79%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [44][63]. - Packaging Paper Market: - White Cardboard and White Board Paper: Last week, the white cardboard production was 307,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.32%); the capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The white board paper production was 201,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.99%); the capacity utilization rate was 71.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. In March 2025, the domestic white cardboard production was 1.147 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (or +23.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.71%); the capacity utilization rate was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% [47][60]. - Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper: Last week, the corrugated paper production was 459,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons (or +2.46%); the capacity utilization rate was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The box board paper production was 618,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.16%); the capacity utilization rate was 68.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [50]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis - Living Paper and Cultural Paper: Last week, in the living paper market, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 3.13%), and the price of bamboo pulp large - roll base paper in Sichuan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%). In the cultural paper market, the price of 70g Chenming Yunbao offset paper in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), and the price of 157g Chenming Xuelu copperplate paper decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%) [53]. - White Board Paper and White Cardboard: Last week, in the white board paper market, the prices of Taicang Jiulong 240g Jianglong white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin Jiulong 250g Dilong white board paper decreased. In the white cardboard market, the prices of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g Red - crowned Crane and Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g Wanguo Sun remained unchanged [55]. - Box Board Paper and Corrugated Paper: Last week, the prices of box board paper and corrugated paper in Shandong remained stable [57]. - Domestic Pulp Consumption - In March 2025, the predicted consumption of domestic pulp was 3.4 million tons, the predicted demand was 3.415 million tons, and the actual announced consumption was 3.441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 476,000 tons (or +16.05%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory - Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed an accumulation trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons (or +1.79%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 0.81%). The inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41,000 tons (or +7.93%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons (or +8.57%) [70][73]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts - Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 325,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 4.44%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 281,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 5.09%) [74].