镍周报：关注矿端与政策扰动风险，镍价震荡-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level shows that Trump signaled tariff adjustment, the Sino - US tariff dispute may ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates in June after getting more economic data. The market risk preference has cooled [5]. - Fundamentally, although Indonesia lowered the nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April (Phase II), the FOB price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore is still strong, and the price of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a low level. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel shows signs of destocking but is still at a high level, suppressing the continuous decline of ferronickel prices. The nickel sulfate market is mediocre. After the nickel price stabilizes, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, supporting high domestic production. Market transactions are dull, waiting for the implementation of Indonesian policies [5]. - In the later stage, there are disturbance risks in both policy and resource aspects. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see in the short term. The new Indonesian tax regulations come into effect on Saturday, and the negotiated tax rate may differ from expectations. In the industry, as the auto sales enter the off - season, there is no incremental expectation in the power market, and the high stainless - steel inventory will continue to pressure the ferronickel price. Supply remains high with no recent disturbances, and there is no current supply - demand contradiction. However, with overseas nickel ore shortages, domestic nickel ore port inventories are at an absolute low, and the overseas shortage may gradually affect the domestic market. While being vigilant about policy disturbances, pay attention to the risks at the mine end [5][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 125,800 yuan/ton, up 1,660 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 15,545 dollars/ton, down 138 dollars/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME inventory on April 25, 2025, was 203,850 tons, down 678 tons from April 16 [6]. - SHFE inventory on April 25, 2025, was 24,800 tons, down 520 tons from April 16 [6]. - Jinchuan nickel premium on April 25, 2025, was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - Russian nickel premium remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton from April 16 to April 25 [6]. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron on April 25, 2025, was 990 yuan/nickel point, down 20 yuan/nickel point from April 16 [6]. - Stainless - steel inventory on April 25, 2025, was 926,000 tons, down 17,400 tons from April 16 [6]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 49.25 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 36.25 dollars/wet ton to 38 dollars/wet ton (April 18). Although Indonesia recently lowered the April (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price, the shortage situation continues, and the prices of both Indonesian and Philippine nickel ores have increased [7]. - Domestic nickel ore port inventories have reached a low level in recent years. Despite the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals this year, the demand for nickel ore is strong due to the record - high domestic refined nickel production [7]. Ferronickel - The average arrival - port duty - paid price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped from 987 yuan/nickel point to 973 yuan/nickel point. In March, China's ferronickel production was 25,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In March, the total domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time. Indonesia's ferronickel production in April is expected to be 141,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, with the production growth rate significantly slowing down [8]. - In April, the total production of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of April 24, the domestic stainless - steel inventory was 579,600 tons, a month - on - month destocking of 15,900 tons. Overall, the inventory accumulation of stainless steel has slowed down, but the destocking trend is not obvious, and the inventory remains at a high level. Currently, domestic ferronickel still faces strong cost pressure and high import dependence, with the import scale reaching a new high. However, the current nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the growth of ferronickel production has significantly slowed down [8]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,050 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose from 29,750 yuan/ton to 30,750 yuan/ton. In April, the expected production of nickel sulfate is about 27,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. In April, the production of ternary materials rebounded month - on - month, with a total of about 62,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Overall, the new - energy power market performs mediocrely, the mainstream cathode is still lithium - iron phosphate, and the market share of ternary materials is continuously compressed. With the future entry of CATL's sodium - ion batteries into the market, the market share of ternary batteries may be further squeezed, and the long - term demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decline [9]. Macro - level - Trump signaled tariff negotiations and said that the tariff sanctions on China would be significantly reduced, but as of the report release, Sino - US tariff negotiations had not started. The US economic survey report shows that there is no obvious change in the US domestic economy, but it repeatedly emphasizes the uncertainty of the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Fed officials said that there are signs of cooling in the US labor market, and the Fed may start to cut interest rates in June after getting more data support. After the news was released, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and gold rebounded significantly [5][9][10]. Fundamentals - Supply side: In April, domestic production capacity was stable, and production reached a new high. The expected production of refined nickel in April was 34,280 tons, an increase of about 2,120 tons from the previous month; the sample production capacity was 53,299 tons, the same as the previous period; the expected operating rate in April was 64.32%, an increase of about 0.12 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic electrolytic nickel export scale was about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. As of April 23, the export profit of Chinese nickel under the SMM caliber was 218.08 dollars/ton. Overall, although the month - on - month export of domestic electrolytic nickel has shrunk, the year - on - year increase is significant, and the absolute volume remains at a high level. With the stable nickel price, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, which will still support high domestic electrolytic nickel supply [10]. - Consumption side: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. According to the CPCA, the production - sales ratio of new - energy vehicles is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is weaker than in previous years. The weak demand momentum leads to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production plans and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure on the whole vehicle remains. Short - term consumption may depend on the results of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric - vehicle prices, and a minimum - pricing plan will replace the tariff plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will gradually weaken, and the external demand for exports is not optimistic. In the traditional field, as of April 20, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities were 285,600 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.87%; the cumulative sales area was 29.6657 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. Overall, the domestic commodity sales have weakened again, and the year - on - year negative growth shows signs of expanding, indicating that the previous replacement demand may be coming to an end. With the lack of financial attributes, the rigid - demand consumption of housing is limited. However, there is still a window for the easing of Sino - US trade, and electrical appliance orders are expected to gradually recover in the near future, but the incremental expectation is limited, and it is difficult to change the bearish fundamentals [11]. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 44,661 tons, an increase of 701 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 24,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 520 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 678 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 228,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,198 tons [12]. 3. Industry Highlights - LG's withdrawal may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming an electric - vehicle battery center. The vice - chairman of the Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers Association said that LG's withdrawal from the "Titan Project" may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming a center for electric - vehicle (EV) batteries [14]. - The construction of Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter project has accelerated. In 2025, Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter launched a "key - project mode" focusing on technological innovation, equipment upgrading, and green transformation. The number of projects increased by 145% year - on - year, and the investment increased by 41.5% to comprehensively enhance core competitiveness [14]. - Hanrui Cobalt has postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelter in Indonesia to 2026. Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd. has postponed the commissioning of its nickel - smelting project in Indonesia to March 31, 2026, citing delays in obtaining administrative permits at the project site and complex geological conditions [14]. - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation. As of April 16, Zhefu Holdings stated on the investor interaction platform that its nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, with a nickel equivalent production of about 6,400 tons in 2024. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for commissioning [14].