铝周报：关税缓解，铝价震荡回升-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]