供需呈现双弱，铅价震荡盘整

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan. The easing of tariff concerns and the release of Fed's rate - cut remarks improved market sentiment, increasing the weight of fundamental pricing. The fundamentals showed a double - weak supply - demand situation. The supply of lead ore was not extremely tight due to imports, while the supply of recycled lead decreased due to raw material shortages and losses, and new production capacity was postponed. On the demand side, lead - acid batteries were in the off - season, and some enterprises planned to have a 5 - day holiday for May Day, 2.5 days more than last year. With the co - existence of reductions and restarts in primary lead smelters and greater impacts from recycled lead maintenance and postponed production, the supply decreased, but battery consumption was poor. The lead price had limited unilateral drivers and was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,895 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1927.5 dollars/ton to 1945 dollars/ton, an increase of 17.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.77 to 8.71; the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons; the social inventory decreased from 54,700 tons to 46,200 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The LME lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, the offers of different brands in different regions had certain premiums or discounts to the SHFE lead 2505 contract. The downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing large - discount goods increased, and the trading activity improved. As of April 25th, the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons. As of April 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons compared to April 17th and by 8,500 tons compared to April 21st [5][6]. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were flat month - on - month. A small - scale lead and precious - rare metal recycling and smelting capacity in Guangxi was expected to be put into operation in Q4 2025, with an expected electrolytic lead production capacity of 60,000 tons/year. A smelter in South China started lead - zinc smelting maintenance, expected to affect about 10,000 tons of zinc and 4,000 tons of lead. A large - scale primary lead smelter in Henan resumed production. A new recycled lead smelter in Southwest China postponed its production to mid - May. Some recycled lead smelters in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. In March, the import volume of lead concentrates was 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 59.69%. The total import of refined lead and lead products was 11,933 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.35%, and the export was 5,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.6%. In 2025, the global refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, the global lead mine output is expected to grow by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons, and the global refined lead production is expected to grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons [8][9]. Related Charts - The report includes charts such as SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory situations of SHFE and LME, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, profit of recycled lead enterprises, lead concentrate processing fees, production of primary lead and recycled refined lead, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][12][16]