生猪周报：供需趋平衡，现货偏震荡-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for the pig industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - Based on the cycle of the pig industry's fundamentals, the pig farming industry in 2025 may enter a pressure cycle, and prices will still face long - term downward pressure. However, in the short term, due to the impact of diseases and the boost of farming sentiment, pig prices in the second quarter may have short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report mentions the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [3][4] - 1.2 Pig Basis: The pig basis fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The near - far spread of pig futures has increased slightly and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main pig futures contract is in an oscillatory state [2] - 1.3 Pig Spread: The report shows the spread of each pig futures contract, but no specific analysis is given [8][9] - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Position: It presents the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September pig futures contract, with data from Wind, but no in - depth analysis [11][12][13] Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: In March, the official breeding sow inventory was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Since May last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, and it is deduced that the theoretical slaughter volume may continue to be large in the second quarter of this year [2] - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the price ratio of piglets to pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets (in ten thousand heads), with data from WIND, but no specific analysis [17][18][20] - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample farming enterprises increased slightly this week, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. The report also provides the seasonal chart of the average weight of commercial pig slaughter and the pig slaughter structure, with data from Mysteel [2][23][24] - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The standard - fat price spread widened slightly this week, and the report shows its daily and seasonal charts [2][25][26] Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: This week, the slaughter orders increased slightly, the slaughter profit decreased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory increased slightly and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years [2] - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The willingness of secondary fattening to enter the market at low prices has strengthened recently, and the frozen product inventory has also increased significantly, which may provide short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter. The report shows the capacity utilization rate of frozen products and fresh meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of the capacity utilization rate of frozen products, with data from Mysteel [2][31][32] - 3.3 Substitutes: It shows the seasonal charts of the price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, but no specific analysis [33][35] Profit Analysis - 4.1 Farming Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising farming profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain price ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years [2] - 4.2 Pig - Grain Price Ratio: It shows the pig - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart, with data from the National Development and Reform Commission [40][41][42]