锌周报：锌价反弹放缓，关注假期风险-20250428

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract of SHFE zinc rebounded. The macro - sentiment improved as Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased and Fed officials signaled potential interest - rate cuts. The Politburo meeting in China maintained a positive tone, restoring market risk appetite. The Antamina mine's short - term shutdown due to an accident had little impact, and the global zinc ore supply recovery pattern remained unchanged. In May, there are many regular refinery overhauls, with an expected output reduction of around 20,000 tons. The import of zinc ingots has not been continuously opened, and the supply of imported goods in the market is limited. Some holders are reluctant to sell, leading to a rise in spot premiums. On the demand side, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises declined, the orders of some alloy enterprises are expected to decrease, and the operating rate of zinc oxide decreased slightly. However, due to downstream restocking at low prices and holders' reluctance to sell, the inventory continued to decline to 85,800 tons. Overall, although the tariff concerns have eased, there is no substantial progress. The increase in refinery overhauls reduces the supply pressure of refined zinc, and the low inventory supports the expansion of the single - side price and the monthly spread. But approaching the May Day holiday, overseas risks still exist, and domestic margin requirements are increased, so the rebound pace of zinc prices is expected to slow down, and there is significant pressure at the upper integer levels [3][4][10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,050 yuan/ton to 22,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,595 dollars/ton to 2,645.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 50.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.50 to 8.60. The SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. The spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc ZN2506 continued to rebound from a low level last week, closing at 22,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.17%. The price center shifted down on Friday night. The LME zinc rebounded, closing at 2,645.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.95%. In the spot market, the spot premium rebounded, but the trading was light. As of April 25th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. In terms of the macro - environment, the US April Markit composite PMI declined more than expected, Trump mentioned potential tariff cuts on China, and Fed officials discussed interest - rate cuts. The eurozone's April composite PMI had almost zero growth. China's Politburo meeting emphasized a more proactive macro - policy [6][7][8][9]. 3. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 50 yuan/metal ton and 5 dollars/dry ton respectively. On April 22nd, the Antamina mine in Peru had an accident and resumed operation on the 24th. In March, the import volume of zinc concentrates decreased by 22.09% month - on - month and increased by 47.16% year - on - year, and the import volume of refined zinc decreased by 18.12% month - on - month and 40.5% year - on - year. In the first quarter, Teck's zinc concentrate output decreased by 14% year - on - year, Boliden's increased by 38.95% quarter - on - quarter and 45.78% year - on - year, and Newmont's decreased by 23.9% quarter - on - quarter. The demand for electronic product orders in the die - casting zinc alloy industry in Guangdong has slowed down. The ILZSG expects the global refined zinc demand to increase by 1% to 1.364 million tons in 2025 and the output to increase by 1.8% to 1.373 million tons, and the zinc mine output to increase by 4.3% to 1.243 million tons [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory changes, and domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, etc., which help to visually present the market situation of zinc [15][19][20][30].