华金期货生猪周报-20250428

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]