Report Overview - Report Title: Global Sugar Market Overview (2025/4/28) [1] - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute [2] 1. Market Focus International Market - Brazil: The new sugar - cane crushing season is about to start, and attention should be paid to weather conditions and the progress of the crush. As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 4016.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [4][7][14] - India: As of mid - April 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons or 18.42% compared to the same period last year. [4][30][35] - Thailand: As of March 23, 2025, the sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, an increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% compared to the same period last year. [4][41][43] Domestic Market - China: The sugar - cane crushing season is gradually ending, and inventories are relatively high. As of the end of March 2025, the national total sugar production was 10.75 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.17 million tons), the sugar sales volume was 6 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.26 million tons), and the sales progress was 55.8% (6.3% faster year - on - year). [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, future imported sugar and substitutes will be the biggest variables on the supply side of the summer market. It is recommended to approach white sugar from a short - term oscillatory perspective, and relevant enterprises should carry out hedging operations according to their production situations. [5] - Internationally, Brazil has entered a new crushing season, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather; India's production has decreased, while Thailand's has increased; the Sino - US tariff game has a relatively limited impact on sugar trade; there has been no further news guidance in the market in recent weeks. [8] 3. Fundamental Analysis CFTC Net Long Positions - Net long positions have increased but remain at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [7] Brazilian Sugar Production and Export - Production: As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 4016.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [7][14] - Export: In March 2025, 1.85 million tons were exported, and the cumulative export in the season reached 35.25 million tons; in the first three weeks of April, 759,200 tons of sugar and molasses were exported. [7] - Inventory: At the end of March 2025, Brazil's inventory was 2.61 million tons, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [7] Import Profit - Import profit is positive and at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. [8] 4. Global Sugar Supply and Demand USDA Data - Compared to last year, global sugar production has increased by 2.8 million tons to 186.6 million tons. Increases in production in China, India, and Thailand have offset the decline in Brazil's production; with the growth of the Indian market, consumption is expected to reach a new high; due to the increase in Thailand's exports, global available exports have increased. [12] ISO Report - It is estimated that the global sugar supply gap in the 24/25 season will widen from the 251,300 - ton estimate in November 2024 to 488,100 tons; due to factors such as a decrease in the total production of major southern hemisphere producing areas after October 2024, lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan, and a decline in Thailand's total sugar - cane production, the global sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to drop to 175.54 million tons; the global consumption in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 180.42 million tons; both import and export volumes will decline, with imports at 63.324 million tons and exports at 62.661 million tons. The 66,300 - ton trade gap is much smaller than the current production/consumption gap, indicating a significant reduction in inventory. [12] StoneX Forecast - It is estimated that the global sugar surplus in the 2023/24 season was 3.2 million tons, and the surplus in the 2024/25 season will be 2.14 million tons. StoneX has raised its production forecast for India, and the possibility of exports is higher, with an expected export volume of 1 million tons. [13] 5. Key Country Analyses Brazil - Production: IBGE expects Brazil's sugar - cane planting area in 2025 to be 9.260858 million hectares, a 0.4% increase from last month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year; the sugar - cane production is expected to be 708.443279 million tons, a 0.2% increase from last month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year. As of March 15, 2025, there were 204 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 154; the sugar - cane crushed was 254.517 million tons, a decrease of 29.631 million tons or 10.43% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 23.715 million tons, a decrease of 4.555 million tons or 16.11% compared to the same period last year. [29] - Export: In March 2025, 1.8533 million tons were exported, and the cumulative export in the season reached 35.23 million tons. [20] - Ethanol: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.3, showing minor fluctuations around a stable level. [25] India - Production: As of April 15, 2025, there were 37 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 37; the sugar - cane crushed was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons or 11.51% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons or 18.42% compared to the same period last year. [35] - Export: Although the Indian government has allowed the export of 1 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, it is expected that the actual export volume may only be 600,000 - 700,000 tons by the end of the season in September. [39] Thailand - Production: As of March 23, 2025, the cumulative sugar - cane crushed was 91.6207 million tons, an increase of 9.9598 million tons or 12.2% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - cane sugar content was 12.61%, an increase of 0.27% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making rate was 10.888%, an increase of 0.227% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, an increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% compared to the same period last year. The OSCB director expects Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season to reach 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. [43][46] United States - Supply and demand balance: The production estimate has been slightly adjusted downward, while the import volume and ending inventory estimates have been adjusted upward. [47] 6. Domestic Market Analysis Production and Sales - The sugar - cane crushing season is gradually ending, and the sales rate has increased, with industrial inventory showing a significant decline in March. [5] Import - In March 2025, 61,300 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative import volume for the year is at a low level. [52] Trade - Import profit has rebounded. [56] 7. Market Indicators International Sugar Market - The net long position of CFTC funds remains at a relatively low level. [62] Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - The basis and the spread between contract months have widened. [65]
全球糖市纵览（2025、4、28）
Hua Jin Qi Huo·2025-04-28 09:43