原油燃料油日报：地缘局势尚无明显好转，油价维持窄幅震荡-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show no significant improvement, and oil prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the market has gradually digested existing negative factors. In the long - term, whether Trump's tariff policy will lead to a substantial recession in the US economy may be the key variable determining the long - term trend [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil: After the third round of US - Iran negotiations, the Iranian foreign minister said there were serious differences, while US officials claimed the meeting was "positive and productive". On April 25, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. Overseas, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel [2]. - Fuel Oil: On April 25, FU was reported at 3028 yuan/ton, LU at 3477 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 217.5 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged by the cost side and can't have an independent market. The high - sulfur variety's strong support pattern hasn't changed, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety shows no significant pressure for now [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Among spot prices, OPEC - basket decreased by 2.04%, while some others like Brent increased. The spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI also changed. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory increased by 0.06% from April 11 to April 18, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 2.09% [7]. - Fuel Oil: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Some spot prices like IFO380 in Rotterdam increased, while others remained unchanged. The spreads such as Singapore high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore's inventory increased by 5.41% from April 11 to April 18 [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Internal Price: On April 25, the SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil increased by 0.41 to 63.21 dollars/barrel [9]. - External Price: On April 25, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel. Spot prices of Dubai and Oman decreased by 0.22%, while Brent increased by 0.42% [10]. - Macro - environment: Trump's tariff policy is shifting from "full - scale pressure" to "selective relaxation". The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025. The US - Iran negotiation had no substantial progress, and the US - Russia conflict may intensify [3][11][12]. - Supply: Kazakhstan's oil production exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 26% in April, triggering a trust crisis in OPEC+ production cuts. Some OPEC+ members plan to increase production in June. Russia's new well - drilling speed is at a five - year high [14][15]. - Demand: Pakistan's domestic oil reserves increased by 23% in 2024, but it still depends on imports. Global oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be the slowest in five years, with an increase of 730,000 barrels/day, 300,000 barrels/day lower than last month's forecast [16]. - Inventory: In the week of April 18, US EIA commercial crude inventory increased by 244,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.476 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 2.353 million barrels. API data showed a large decrease in US crude inventory last week [17]. - Market Information: The US Secretary of State said the US won't expand sanctions on Russia, while Trump mentioned possible financial sanctions. The Qatar - Gaza talks made some progress, and Hamas is willing to release hostages and seek a 5 - year cease - fire. Putin's press secretary said Trump's views on the Ukraine conflict are basically in line with Russia's [18]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts including WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, showing the historical trends and current situations of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24].