关税战：4月宏观经济综述

Core Insights - The current trade war is more intense than in 2018, but market risk appetite is higher due to improved domestic manufacturing capabilities, the resolution of real estate bubbles, the systemic collapse of the traditional international order led by the US, and government efforts to stabilize the stock market [1][8][10][13]. Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting in April made several important deployments, but overall expectations were not met. The government retains significant policy space to address future uncertainties due to the lack of immediate economic pressures [1][16][17]. Market Sentiment - The stock market should not be viewed pessimistically; there is a structural focus on two ends: stable dividend and ROE stocks as natural hedges in uncertain environments, and opportunities in industries related to self-sufficiency and supply chain security [2][18]. Government Policy - The government is actively maintaining stock market stability, with the central bank indicating support for stock index funds and state-owned enterprises engaging in buybacks to bolster market confidence [13][18]. Trade Dynamics - The trade war has led to a significant decoupling between China and the US, with tariffs of 145% from the US and 125% from China impacting trade flows. However, China's manufacturing and supply chain stability have improved, allowing it to become a global leader in several sectors [8][9]. Real Estate and Financial Sector - The real estate bubble has been effectively addressed, with financial services now focusing on supporting the real economy. The financial sector has moved away from speculative practices, leading to a more stable economic environment [9][10]. International Monetary System - The traditional international order led by the US is facing systemic challenges, with the credibility of the dollar diminishing due to high internal debt and a retreat from globalization. This has resulted in increased volatility in dollar assets and a shift of capital towards non-US markets [10][12]. Future Economic Outlook - The government emphasizes stabilizing employment and consumption, with policies aimed at supporting vulnerable groups affected by tariffs. The focus is on enhancing service consumption and improving income for lower and middle-income groups [17][18].