瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Suggests going long with a light position on dips [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, and the Politburo meeting emphasizes support for the real economy. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports increase, refinery profits improve, and production will rise. The import window for refined zinc is closed, and imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, traditional peak - season demand is warming up, domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, but the real - estate sector still drags down demand. Technically, positions are decreasing, and MACD forms a golden cross at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the MA10 support and go long on dips [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,520 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 265 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 220,135 lots, down 5,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,459 lots, down 7,267 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,856 tons, down 329 tons. The SHFE inventory is 51,378 tons, down 7,207 tons; the LME inventory is 180,050 tons, down 2,250 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,540 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 33.73 dollars/ton, down 0.3 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; LIZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 72,900 tons, down 5,300 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.66%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.66%, down 0.2%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 18.28%, down 0.3%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 17.38%, down 0.18% [3] Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell emphasizes the Fed's independence from political intervention, and the Fed enters a quiet period with an expected unchanged interest rate. The final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April is 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation is 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The Politburo meeting emphasizes timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support the real economy [3] View Summary - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports and processing fees rise, refinery profits improve, and production increases. The import window is closed, and refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, traditional peak - season demand is warming up, domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, but the real - estate sector still drags down demand. Technically, positions are decreasing, and MACD forms a golden cross at a low level [3] 提示关注 - There is no news today [3]