HTSC·2025-04-28 02:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market," focusing on urban village renovations, high-quality housing, and stock housing acquisition [2][4]. - The report indicates that the incremental policy window for the real estate industry is gradually opening, with a more proactive macroeconomic and fiscal policy environment expected to support market recovery, particularly in first-tier cities [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with new and second-hand housing sales in 19 key cities rising by 18% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in market stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The meeting's focus on urban renewal, stock housing acquisition, and high-quality housing supply aligns with previous predictions regarding the incremental policy window [4]. - The emphasis on urban renewal actions and the acceleration of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations signal strong governmental support for these initiatives [4]. Market Recovery - The report notes that while the market has shown signs of stabilization, particularly in sales volume, the foundation for price stability remains fragile, necessitating ongoing policy support [3]. - The report suggests that first-tier cities will exhibit greater policy elasticity, which could lead to a more pronounced recovery in the market and related stocks [2][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," particularly in first-tier cities [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [5][9]. - Hong Kong-listed developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and Yuexiu Property [5][9]. - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Jiyu, and Binjiang Service [5][9].