短期供需平衡，花生震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of peanuts are balanced, and the market will mainly fluctuate. Oil mills generally control the quality of incoming goods, purchase good - quality oilseeds appropriately, which plays a supporting role. Some farmers in production areas are busy with farming, with a small amount of peanuts being supplied and not in a concentrated manner. Intermediaries hold goods and wait - and - see. In the short term, the overall supply and demand of peanuts are balanced, and the market will still fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the 7900 - 8300 range of the 10 - contract [1][6] Summary by Directory 1. Main View - Short - term supply and demand of peanuts are balanced, and the market is mainly in a fluctuating state. This week, the trading of commercial peanuts in production areas has slowed down, and oil mills purchase good - quality oilseeds in appropriate amounts. Last week, the overall supply in production areas was not large. Some farmers started to supply a small amount, but it was not concentrated and there was no significant pressure. Downstream procurement of commercial peanuts has slowed down, and it is difficult to accept high prices. For oilseeds, oil mills generally intend to purchase some high - quality goods, and the reduction in low - priced products provides support again. The shipment of the wholesale market has slowed down, with inventory available for consumption, and procurement may not increase in the short term, mainly replenishing stocks in small quantities when prices are low. The market will still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 7900 - 8300 range of the 10 - contract [6] 2. Market Review 2.1 This week, peanut and oil prices adjusted and then slightly broke through the range - The peanut weighted index showed a weak and fluctuating downward trend, and the selling pressure at the lower edge of the range was weak. The price quickly rebounded to near the upper edge of the range. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of buying power and the selling pressure at the upper edge of the range. The trading volume of the oil sector quickly broke through the upper edge of the small - range, and attention should be paid to the price correction [11] 2.2 Comparison of 2505 and 2510 contracts - The 05 - contract is approaching delivery, with a reduction in positions and a weak and fluctuating trend. The 10 - contract has a slight rebound [14] 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil mill inventory and operating rate - Last week, the inventory of peanut oil was 40,400 tons, an increase of 80 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate of oil mills was 11.05%, an increase of about 2.1% compared with last week [17] 3.2 Peanut general price (Baisha variety) - The spot price of Baisha peanuts is currently running steadily and weakly. The current purchase and sale are light, and the price fluctuation is not large [19] 3.3 Peanut oil price trend - This week, the average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main production areas was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 250 yuan/ton compared with last week [22] 3.4 Peanut meal price trend - The price of peanut meal is basically the same as last week. The prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal rose sharply and then quickly fell back [26] 3.5 Imported peanut quantity and price - The quantity of imported peanuts has continued to decline this week. The supply of refined peanuts from Sudan is scarce, and no new peanuts have arrived at the port. The import price is relatively stable. The procurement of peanuts from Senegal is limited [30] 3.6 Market price index compared with last month - In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated. The price in some areas has a weakening trend affected by the origin [33] 3.7 Peanut and peanut oil supply - demand balance sheet - From 2020/21 to 2024/25, the production of peanuts (unhulled) increased from 17,992.7 to 20,440, with a growth rate of 6.29%. The planting area increased from 4,730.85 to 5,270, with a growth rate of 9.84%. The import volume (including hulled and unhulled) decreased from 1,083 to 360, with a decline rate of 45.54%. The total annual supply (hulled) increased from 15,155.2 to 15,777, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The total annual consumption increased from 13,600 to 14,580, with a growth rate of 5.04%. The year - end inventory decreased from 1,555.19 to 1,197, with a decline rate of 15.23% [36] 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis spread - Not further described in detail other than showing relevant data charts [37]