集运日报：现货运价走势持续悲观，多空博弈下盘面宽幅波动，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate trend remains pessimistic, with wide fluctuations in the futures market due to the game between bulls and bears. It is difficult to operate in the short term, and risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1]. - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. The repeated tariff policies of the US in April and the upcoming US - line long - term agreement pricing window add significant disturbances to future shipping trends [1]. - Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [1]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Data - On April 25, the NCFI (composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1508.44 points, up 7.6%; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19%; the SCFIS (US - West route) was 1368.41 points, down 13.8%; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% [1]. - On April 25, the SCFI was 1347.84 points, down 22.74 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1122.40 points, up 1.0%; the SCFI European route price was 1260 USD/TEU, down 4.26%; the CCFI (European route) was 1499.50 points, up 0.9%; the SCFI US - West route was 2141 USD/FEU, up 1.81%; the CCFI (US - West route) was 823.14 points, up 1.4% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (50.2 in February, the highest since August), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [1]. - In China, the February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months with a significantly slower contraction rate of employment [1]. - In the US, the March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (the lowest in 3 months), the services PMI preliminary value was 54.3 (the highest in 3 months), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5 (the highest in 3 months) [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to participate in contracts with a medium - to - long - term perspective [1]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff issues, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, with a short window period and large fluctuations [1]. - Long - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [1]. Market Conditions and Other Information - On April 25, the main contract 2506 closed at 1365.1, down 2.92%, with a trading volume of 64,300 lots and an open interest of 40,300 lots, a decrease of 4120 lots from the previous day [1][2]. - The spot freight rate trend is pessimistic, and the Sino - US tariff issue is intensifying, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment and wide - range fluctuations in the futures market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16%, the margin is 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [1][2].