贵金属日评：美国对等关税暂停至7月8日，俄乌及美伊谈判未果印巴冲突再起-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. London gold should focus on support levels around $3150 - 3250 and resistance levels around $3500 - 3700; Shanghai gold should focus on support levels around 750 - 770 and resistance levels around 850 - 900; London silver should focus on support levels around $28 - 30 and resistance levels around $35 - 36; Shanghai silver should focus on support levels around 7400 - 7800/8000 and resistance levels around 8600 - 8900 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Data: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 793.25 yuan/gram, down 8.32 yuan; trading volume was 65020, and open interest was 232308. COMEX gold futures' closing price was $3357.70 per ounce, down $31.10; trading volume was 234897, and open interest was 327650. London gold spot price was $3322.90 per ounce, down $37.45. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 946.27 tons, down 10.90 tons; iShare Gold ETF holdings were 431.10 tons, up 4.14 tons [1] - Important News: Trump said that 200 agreements had been negotiated, the US - Philippines agreement was "very close", and it was unlikely that tariffs would be postponed for another 90 days. The Trump administration planned to hold talks with 18 trading partners under a new framework for simplified negotiations until July 8. There was a small - scale exchange of fire between India and Pakistan near the Line of Control in Kashmir on Thursday night, and the Pakistani defense minister issued a "full - scale war" warning [1] Silver - Market Data: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8270 yuan/ten grams, down 25 yuan; trading volume was - 460823, and open interest was 312250. COMEX silver futures' closing price was $33.02 per ounce, down $0.53; trading volume was 52122, and open interest was 34152. London silver spot price was $33.34 per ounce, up $0.38. US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 13956.01 tons, down 147.11 tons; Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holdings were 5807.39 tons [1] - Important News: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, reaching an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion over the next decade and an increase in the debt ceiling of $5 trillion in exchange for government spending cuts of $4 billion [1] Central Bank Policies - European Central Bank: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Eurozone and German - French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. Eurozone and German consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in August were 2.2% and 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Economists predicted that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - Bank of England: Kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, continuing to reduce government bond holdings of £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's consumer price index (core CPI) annual rates in February were 2.8% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value. The SPGI manufacturing and services PMIs in April were 44/48.957, lower than expected and the previous value, and the GDP monthly rate in April was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value. The market expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May and might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - Bank of Japan: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and started to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen in August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru planned to coordinate the 2025 supplementary budget to distribute subsidies of 50,000 yen per person (the total scale may be close to 10 trillion yen) and cut taxes on daily necessities by 2 trillion yen. Japan's (Tokyo) consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in March (April) were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hoped to raise interest rates to 1% in the second and third quarters, and the market expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 493.40 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $65.83 per barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was $62.77 per barrel [1] - Base Metals: Shanghai copper futures were 77440 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was $9392.50 per ton, Shanghai rebar was 3106 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 709 yuan/ton [1] - Interest Rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.57%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3200%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0200%, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2700% [1] - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 99.2667, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2055, and the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2124 [1] - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3297.2881, the S&P 500 was 5525.2100, the UK FTSE 100 was 8415.2500, the French CAC40 was 7329.9700, the German DAX was 22242.4500, the Nikkei 225 was 35705.7400, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2522.3300 [1]