航运衍生品数据日报-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current macro - environment with unstable factors, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines. However, for investors with a higher risk tolerance, they can gradually go long on peak - season contracts when the price drops to the current level. The 06 contract is not as promising as the 08 contract. Currently, the price around 1600+ points is relatively low. The recent decline is mainly due to the suppression of macro - pessimistic funds and the weakness of the spot market. The concept of rush - re - export has been basically falsified. As the 04 contract approaches delivery, the 06 contract will gradually follow the delivery logic. The transfer of some idle ships on the US route to the European route in May has increased the supply on the European route, but this is a one - time event and does not significantly affect the supply during the peak season in July and August. The freight rate in early May has maintained the April level, and the freight rate in June this year lacks the upward slope compared to previous years, while the 8 - month freight rate still has two months of peak - season extension after June [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1348, down 1.62% from the previous value; China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1112, up 0.13% from the previous value. Among different routes, SCFI - US West is at 2141, up 1.81%; SCFIS - US West is at 1368, down 13.80%; SCFI - US East is at 3257, up 0.18%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1260, down 4.26%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1508, up 7.56%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2129, down 1.48% [4]. - For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2504 are 1365.1 (up 0.49%), 1613.0 (up 2.28%), 1304.9 (up 0.41%), 1476.1 (up 0.76%), 1312.0 (up 0.61%), and 1440.6 (up 0.11%) respectively. The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2504 are 40348 (down 4120), 31861 (down 1441), 16123 (down 739), 4056 (down 192), 2714 (down 92), and 875 (down 34) respectively. The current month - spreads of 4 - 6, 6 - 8, and 8 - 10 are 75.5 (down 5.1), - 247.9 (down 29.3), and 308.1 (up 30.7) respectively [4]. 3.2 Market Conditions Review - The EC market is in a moderately strong and volatile state [7]. - The spot freight rate market is under pressure. After the price increase in March and April for price stabilization failed, the small - scale price increase in late April had poor coordination among major shipping companies. It is expected that the price in early May will remain between 2000 - 2500 US dollars, but the shipping capacity in late May is close to 300,000 TBU. If more ships from the US route are transferred, it will be unfavorable for the development of freight rates. The average price in April was around 2000 US dollars [8]. 3.3 Political Factors - The US - China trade tariff war has cast a pessimistic expectation on the future economy and trade volume. Recently, both sides have shown signals of peace talks, but it is still a stage of accumulating chips and bargaining. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the current tariffs are unsustainable, and it may take 2 - 3 years to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. Trump also stated that he will not lower tariffs on China unless China gives some benefits to the US [9]. 3.4 Other News - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff plans on Chinese goods, including reducing the tariff rate to about 15% - 65% or implementing a "graded plan" [5]. - Apple is planning to transfer the production of all iPhones sold in the US from China to India to avoid future tariff issues [6]. - US retailers are worried that Trump's trade war and increasing volatility will lead to empty shelves, price hikes, and store closures [6].