有色及新能源周报：贸易关税迷雾重重，有色板块偏强-20250428

1. Report Title and General Information - Report Title: [有色及新能源周报] - Trade Tariff Uncertainties Loom, Non - ferrous Metals Sector Shows Strength [1] - Date: April 28, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures, Non - ferrous Metals Research Center [1] 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous metals sector is relatively strong despite the uncertainties of trade tariffs. The market sentiment is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels of different metals [1][16] 3. Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Non - ferrous Metals Price Monitoring - Price Data: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related indices, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Bearish. The Politburo meeting did not mention large - scale stimulus policies, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations. The IMF lowered the global GDP growth forecast [9] - Raw Material End: Bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore decreased, and the port inventory increased [9] - Smelting End: Neutral. The profits of smelters using spot and long - term contracts of copper ore decreased, but production did not decline significantly [9] - Demand End: Bullish. The copper - product开工 rate rebounded in March, and downstream demand improved recently [9] - Inventory: Bullish. Domestic copper inventory decreased, and global visible inventory decreased [9] - Investment View: Bearish. Although the market sentiment has improved, the shadow of US tariffs may still suppress copper prices [9] - Trading Strategy: Short - term bearish for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy recommended. Key risks include US tariff policies, counter - measures of major countries, domestic smelter production cuts, and copper inventory changes [9] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Neutral. The Fed may take action in June, and there are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, but the domestic Politburo meeting was less than expected [87] - Raw Material End: Bearish. Domestic processing fees were flat, and imported processing fees increased. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the impact of the mine accident in Peru was limited [87] - Smelting End: Neutral. There will be more maintenance in Yunnan and Guangxi in May, but some regions plan to increase production. New production capacity will be released in June [87] - Demand End: Neutral. The downstream开工 rate was mixed last week, and raw material inventory decreased this week [87] - Inventory: Bullish. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and it is expected to remain low, supporting zinc prices [87] - Investment View: Sideways. The long - term bearish logic remains, but short - term sentiment improvement and low inventory support the rebound [87] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the far - month reverse arbitrage. Key risks include unexpected increases in processing fees, overseas mine disturbances, and macro - recession risks [87] 4.4 Nickel (NI) - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Macro Factors: Bearish. The Politburo meeting provided limited incremental policy information, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US trade frictions [191] - Raw Material End: Bullish. The Indonesian PNBP policy took effect, increasing mine costs. Domestic port inventory decline slowed, and the rainy season in the Philippines is ending [191] - Smelting End: Neutral. Pure nickel production is high, nickel - iron prices have fallen, and some MHP projects in Indonesia have reduced production [191] - Demand End: Slightly bearish. Stainless steel production may decrease in April - May, and the new energy demand has some positive signs but overall market demand expectations are pessimistic [191] - Inventory: Neutral. Domestic and foreign inventories have slightly decreased but remain at high levels [191] - Investment View: Sideways. Nickel prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the cost range of electrowinning nickel [191] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; gradually take profit on the long - nickel and short - stainless - steel arbitrage. Key risks include changes in nickel - related policies in resource - rich countries and global macro - disturbances [191] 4.5 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) - Industrial Silicon - Supply End: Neutral. National weekly production decreased slightly, and the number of open furnaces decreased. Production in different regions had different trends [285] - Demand End: Neutral. Demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors was mixed, with polysilicon production and profit declining, and organic silicon production and profit also under pressure [285] - Inventory End: Neutral. Visible inventory and industry inventory were basically stable, and warehouse - receipt inventory was high [285] - Cost and Profit: Bullish. The average cost increased, and the profit decreased. Profits in major production areas declined [285] - Investment View: Sideways. The market is pessimistic, but the downside may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [285] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading. Key risks include production resumption and reduction by large factories and environmental policy changes [285] - Polysilicon - Supply End: Neutral. National weekly production was basically stable, and some major producers may continue to implement production cuts. Newly - put - into - production capacity is ramping up [286] - Demand End: Bearish. The production of silicon wafers increased slightly, but the profit decreased, and the terminal demand may shrink after the peak installation season [286] - Inventory End: Bearish. Factory inventory increased significantly [286] - Cost and Profit: Bullish. The average cost decreased, but the profit continued to decline, and the profit in major production areas also decreased [286] - Investment View: Sideways. The fundamental and delivery logics are in conflict. It is recommended to pay attention to the volume of registered warehouse receipts [286] - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for unilateral trading. Key risks include production resumption and reduction by large factories and environmental policy changes [286] 4.6 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply End: Bullish. National weekly production decreased, and production from different sources had different trends. March production increased, and April production is expected to be stable [360] - Import End: Bearish. The import volume in March increased [360] - Demand End: Bearish. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased, and although new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to be good, the overall demand support is weak [360] - Inventory End: Bearish. Social inventory was basically stable, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased rapidly [360] - Cost and Profit: Bearish. The production cost and profit of external - purchase ore - based lithium extraction decreased, while the profit of integrated lithium extraction was positive [360] - Investment View: Bearish. The short - term futures price is expected to be weak [360] - Trading Strategy: Bearish for unilateral trading; 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage. Key risks include mine - end production cuts, environmental policy changes, and disturbances from major power battery manufacturers [360]