IMF下调全球经济增速，政治局会议定调积极

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic commodities entered a volatile pattern, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding. Multiple factors, including Trump's wavering tariff policies, cautious market sentiment, domestic policy restraint, and the impact of counter - measures on agricultural product supply - demand, contributed to this situation. - The coexistence of bullish and bearish factors will keep the commodity market in a volatile state. Negative factors such as Trump's tariff policies, global economic slowdown, and market sentiment fluctuations are countered by positive domestic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Sections PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Global Economic Outlook: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, the lowest since 2020, and the 2026 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%. Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand disrupted global supply chains and dampened investment [3]. - US Economic Indicators: The US April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), and the service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), indicating weakened economic momentum and rising stagflation risks. In March, new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) hindered new construction and real - estate investment [3]. - Eurozone Economic Indicators: The Eurozone April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but still below the boom - bust line for 13 months. The marginal improvement was due to short - term order digestion and export - rush effects, and the economic outlook faces significant downside risks [3]. - Domestic Economic Policies: The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed using high - quality development to address external uncertainties. Fiscal and monetary policies will be more actively implemented. The LPR remained unchanged in April, but a second - quarter "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut" is expected. Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - IMF Forecasts: Lowered 2025 and 2026 global economic growth forecasts due to Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand [3][7]. - US PMI Data: April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), suggesting weakened economic momentum and stagflation risks [3][10]. - US Housing Market: March new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) dampened new construction and investment [3][13]. - Eurozone PMI: April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but below the boom - bust line for 13 months, with short - term factors driving the marginal improvement [3][16]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - Policy Meeting: The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized high - quality development and more active implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [3][20]. - LPR Trends: LPR remained unchanged in April due to stable policy rates, low bank net interest margins, and strong Q1 economic performance. A Q2 cut is expected [3][23]. - Industrial Profits: Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase, with March profits growing 2.6% [3][26]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - PTA and Related Industries: On April 25, PTA - related factory operating rates showed certain levels, e.g., POY and PTA had specific operating rate percentages [34]. - Automobile Sales: As of April 27, 30 - day automobile sales data showed growth rates, and data from April 1 - 20 also had corresponding sales volumes and growth rates [40]. - Agricultural Products: On April 25, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products and the Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index had specific values and changes [41][42].