策略周报：假期备货结束，市场重回弱势-20250428

Report Title - The market has returned to a weak state after the holiday stocking: Strategy Weekly Report 2025-04-28 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a state of oversupply, with low valuations in the short term. After the holiday stocking, the upside potential for spot prices is limited, and futures have started to reflect post-holiday expectations, with the market trending downward [3] Section Summaries Periodic and Spot Market Review - Egg futures: Last week, the futures market showed a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness. As the spot basis for near-term contracts converged, and long-term contracts reflected expectations, the market began to decline following the peak and fall of spot prices. However, considering that near-term contracts were at par with spot prices and closely followed the decline, while the basis for long-term contracts remained high, the market as a whole remained in a weak cycle compared to the same period. It will still take time to break out of the bottom range [6] - Egg spot: Last week, supported by stocking, spot prices rebounded significantly. However, as downstream sales slowed and inventories accumulated in production areas, spot prices firmly declined. Spot prices oscillated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per jin. Currently, price increases are mainly passed on to downstream, but the market will return to weakness after the May Day stocking, and weather conditions will become the main factor suppressing spot prices [6] Supply Side - New capacity: From March to June 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which generally remained at a high level, with the new volume higher than the historical average [10] - Elimination capacity: From March to June 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively moderate [10] - Laying hen inventory: The inventory has remained at a high level. The growth rate of normal new capacity has been relatively stable, and the elimination volume has been high, which may lead to a temporary slowdown in capacity supply [10] Elimination End - Elimination chickens: The price of elimination chickens has been oscillating at a high level, and the increase in egg prices has slowed down the elimination process. The elimination volume has significantly decreased, and the average elimination age is around 530 days, showing a continued downward trend from a high level [13] Seasonal and Market Factors - Seasonality: The seasonal strength has shifted, and the replenishment demand has gradually ended, transitioning to the traditional weather-driven trend [15] - Production area: Currently, inventories are accumulating in production areas, and downstream purchases are made on an as-needed basis. The southern weather is unfavorable for storage, and overall quality issues are affecting egg prices [15] - Consumption: After the holiday stocking, arrivals have increased [15] Substitute Products - Vegetables: Vegetable prices are weak, and as supply has recovered, the support for egg prices has weakened [17] - Pork: Pork prices have continued to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not significant [17] - Other meats: The prices of other meats have shown a staged increase [17] Cost and Profit - Raw materials: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from low levels. Corn prices have been supported by policy-driven purchases, while soybean meal has remained stable with a slight upward trend due to short-term spot shortages [21] - Cost: Costs have been continuously rising. Currently, the feed cost is around 2.66 yuan per jin, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.96 yuan per jin [21] - Breeding profit: There has been a rebound, but the industry has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [21] Capital and Market Trends - Capital: This week, funds left the market after the rebound and then re-entered. Short-selling funds in the main contracts regained momentum [24] - Basis: The basis has declined from a high level, and spot prices have significantly dropped after the holiday. However, the basis is expected to stabilize and strengthen later, providing some support to the futures market [26] - Spread: The near-term strength and long-term weakness driven by stocking have ended, and the market has returned to a contango structure [29]