PTA：假期终端减产预期下，PTA延续成本主导，MEG：向上动能不足，乙二醇延续震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, PTA is expected to continue its cost - driven market. The supply is expected to shrink due to multiple PTA device overhauls next week, and the polyester load remains high, maintaining a tight balance in supply and demand. However, trade disputes have led to a continuous decline in the terminal weaving load, increasing the negative feedback and the expectation of polyester production cuts [6]. - In the short - term, ethylene glycol is expected to continue its oscillating pattern. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped to around 60%, and the polyester operating rate remains high. There was inventory reduction in April from a marginal supply - demand perspective. But macro - uncertain factors affect the market, and the negative feedback from the terminal weaving industry is intensifying, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: Terminal demand was sluggish, but the negative impact of the new US tariff policy weakened significantly. Crude oil prices rose, and PX prices increased slightly. As of April 25, the closing price of Asian PX was $752/ton CFR China, up $12/ton from April 17 [16]. - PX Supply: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 77.17%, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week. The PX supply was at a low level under the overhaul process [20]. - PX - Naphtha Spread: As of April 25, the PX - naphtha spread was $170.3/ton, down $2/ton from April 17. The additional tariffs had a significant impact on the terminal textile and clothing industry, and the PX processing fee continued to decline during the week [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: With the restart of previously overhauled devices, domestic supply increased. The polyester end was operating at a high load, and the supply - demand remained in a tight pattern. At the beginning of the week, the terminal performance was poor, polyester sales were mediocre, and the market center weakened. In the middle of the week, there was an expectation of easing in the tariff dispute, the commodity sentiment recovered, and the PTA spot center strengthened. As of April 18, the PTA spot price was 4,428 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2505 + 18 or 09 + 43 [26]. - Capacity Utilization: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a 3.30% increase from the previous week. Yisheng Dahua and Fujian Baihong restarted as scheduled, and other devices remained stable, resulting in a significant increase in domestic capacity utilization. In April, there were overhaul plans for Yisheng Hainan, Baihong, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Jiayuan Energy, and there were restart plans for Yisheng Dahua, Baihong, and Taihua within the month. There was an expectation of capacity utilization recovery for domestic PTA in April [31]. - Processing Fee: Due to the increase in domestic supply and the spread of pessimism on the demand side, the PTA processing fee decreased significantly compared to the previous period. The average PTA processing fee was 281 yuan/ton, a 11.8% decrease. Next week, the supply will shrink significantly, but the terminal and downstream are pessimistic, and the probability of polyester load reduction is high. The PTA processing fee may remain at a low level [34]. - Inventory Expectation: In April, some PTA devices had overhaul plans, and there would be no new PTA device put into production. Downstream polyester new devices were continuously being put into production, and the demand for polyester bottle chips increased during the peak season for soft drinks in the second quarter. There was still an expectation of inventory reduction in April [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Fluctuation: After briefly breaking through the support level of 4,200 yuan in Zhangjiagang, bargain - hunting buyers entered the market, and ethylene glycol stabilized and rebounded. However, due to the unstable external economic environment, the upward momentum was insufficient, and the fluctuation of ethylene glycol narrowed. As of April 25, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,184 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,380 yuan/ton [40]. - Production: The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.93%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.01%, a 2.06% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 53.17%, a 3.53% increase. In April, the downstream and terminal were in the consumption peak season, and there was still an expectation of further increase in the operating rates of polyester and weaving. With multiple ethylene glycol devices having overhaul plans, there was an expectation of inventory reduction in the ethylene glycol supply - demand structure [45]. - Inventory: As of April 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China was 68.77 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons from April 21 and a decrease of 1.9 tons from April 17. The inventory increased due to the slowdown in port shipments and relatively stable arrivals this week. As of April 30, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 24.82 tons, including 9.92 tons in Zhangjiagang, 7.7 tons in Taicang, 6 tons in Ningbo, and 1.2 tons in Jiangyin [48]. - Production Profit: With ethylene glycol operating weakly, the production profits of various processes declined. The profit of naphtha - based production was - $121.49/ton, a decrease of $24.47/ton from the previous week, and the sample profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 269.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.25 yuan/ton from the previous week [52]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Capacity Utilization: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.75%, a 0.67% increase from the previous week. There were both device overhauls and restarts during the week. Although the Sanfangxiang device was overhauled and Sheng Hong reduced production, devices such as Wankai, Xingbang, and Yihua restarted, and Jingwei increased its load. The overall supply increase was slightly higher than the decrease, resulting in a slight increase in weekly production and capacity utilization [55]. - Polyester Production: In April, there were both overhauls and restarts within the month, and there was an expectation of new device commissioning. It was expected that the monthly polyester production would decline slightly [56]. - Product Inventory: This week, downstream rigid - demand replenishment led to a surge in polyester sales, and the inventory of polyester products decreased [62]. - Polyester Cash Flow: Downstream textile enterprises mostly planned to shut down for overhauls during the May Day holiday, and the terminal outlook was pessimistic. Polyester factories mainly promoted sales with price concessions [65]. - Weaving Industry: As of April 24, the operating load of the weaving industry was 55.15%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.65 days, a decrease of 0.30 days from the previous week. The recent US reciprocal tariff policy has dragged down market demand, and the demand in the textile and clothing industry has been continuously poor. Factories mainly produced based on actual orders, and raw material procurement was more cautious due to poor orders, with purchases made as needed [70]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - Cost End: Terminal demand was sluggish, but the negative impact of the new US tariff policy weakened significantly. Crude oil prices rose, and PX prices increased slightly [72]. - Supply End: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a 3.30% increase from the previous week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.93%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week [72]. - Demand End: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.75%, a 0.67% increase from the previous week. As of April 24, the operating load of the weaving industry was 55.15%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.65 days, a decrease of 0.30 days from the previous week [72]. - Inventory: There was an expectation of supply reduction for PTA, and the polyester load remained high, maintaining a tight balance in supply and demand. As of April 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China was 68.77 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons from April 21 and a decrease of 1.9 tons from April 17 [72].