大类资产配置月报第46期：2025年5月：关税风险减弱，资产价格迎来“喘息”之机-20250428

Group 1 - The report indicates that the tariff risk is easing, which is expected to lead to a rebound in U.S. stocks and international commodity prices [2][31] - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding domestic equity markets, highlighting the need to remain vigilant about uncertainties [24][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of prioritizing financial sector investments due to the current market conditions and potential policy support [24][27] Group 2 - The report notes that the short-term interest rates have more room to decline compared to long-term rates, indicating a potential shift in the bond market dynamics [36][41] - It highlights that the easing of tariff risks may still drag on demand for commodities, suggesting a mixed outlook for the commodity sector [4][36] - The report discusses the potential for a rebound in the U.S. stock market, driven by a weakening stance on tariffs and a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [31][49] Group 3 - The report outlines that the domestic economic fundamentals are showing signs of marginal weakening, but policy support is expected to mitigate the impact of declining exports [18][24] - It mentions that the automotive sector is experiencing a rebound in wholesale and retail sales, which is contributing positively to consumer spending [15][18] - The report indicates that the insurance sector may benefit from regulatory changes and a favorable market environment, potentially leading to improved performance [27][28] Group 4 - The report suggests that the easing of tariff risks could lead to a stabilization of the U.S. dollar, which may benefit the currency exchange rates [4][36] - It highlights that the commodity prices, particularly for copper and oil, are expected to experience fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and demand dynamics [2][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the agricultural sector, which is expected to remain stable amid changing market conditions [28][36]