天然橡胶深度：供需趋紧，周期蓄势

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the natural rubber industry, indicating potential for demand recovery and supply tightening, which may lead to a prolonged boom cycle [3][10]. Core Insights - Natural rubber is one of the four major industrial raw materials and is expected to experience a demand rebound and supply constraints in the coming years, potentially leading to a long-term favorable market cycle [3][10]. - The report highlights the importance of tire manufacturing as the primary demand driver for natural rubber, with non-tire applications in medical and electronic sectors showing significant growth potential [7][55]. Demand Side - The global demand for natural rubber is on an upward trend, primarily driven by tire manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 70% of natural rubber usage [43][51]. - The growth rate of global automobile ownership is expected to return to 2.0% to 2.5%, which will positively impact natural rubber demand [49]. - Non-tire demand, particularly in the medical sector due to aging populations and increased healthcare needs, is projected to maintain rapid growth [55][62]. Supply Side - The natural rubber planting boom has been stagnant for about a decade, with significant new planting activity occurring primarily in Thailand and Indonesia [8][71]. - The long maturation period of rubber trees (7-8 years) makes supply predictions more straightforward, but the lack of new planting could lead to future supply constraints [67][71]. Substitutes and Market Dynamics - The supply of synthetic rubber, particularly the core raw material butadiene, is expected to tighten, which may increase the demand for natural rubber as a substitute [9][10]. - The report notes that the price of natural rubber is highly correlated with synthetic rubber prices, indicating potential for price increases in the event of supply disruptions in synthetic rubber production [9][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies such as Hainan Rubber, which may benefit from the anticipated market dynamics of natural rubber [10].