正信期货棕榈油周报20250428：长假来临，资金避险，油脂进一步反弹乏力-20250428

Report Overview - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Palm Oil Weekly Report 20250428 - Analyst: Zhang Cuiping - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0016574 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Long holidays approaching lead to capital risk - aversion, making it difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. Last week, the price centers of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up overall. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 15% in the first 25 days of April, and production increased by 9 - 20% in the first 20 days. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. As of April 20, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%. In China, the spot demand for soybean oil is good, and the inventory has dropped to a low level of around 650,000 tons; there are purchases for both near - and far - term contracts of palm oil, and the inventory has stopped decreasing; the direct import level of rapeseed oil is high, and the inventory remains at a high level of over 800,000 tons. [7] - The sowing of new - season US soybeans has begun with a good initial progress, and weather - related trading has not started yet. However, the recovery of US biodiesel consumption and the improved outlook have driven the CBOT soybean price back above 1050. There is a lack of news about Indonesia's B40. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended an eight - month inversion, and recent purchases by China and India have continued to improve Malaysia's palm oil exports. But Malaysia's palm oil production in April continued the significant increase trend in March, and the producer quotes have dropped significantly. The producing areas have entered the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. [7] - In terms of operation, as the tariff sentiment is released, the three major oils and fats have further recovered their previous declines. The palm oil is generally slightly weaker than soybean and rapeseed oils both at home and abroad. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of expanding the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil should be maintained. And as the May Day holiday approaches, attention should be paid to the short - term volatility risks caused by capital outflows. [8] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: With the approaching long holiday, capital is seeking safety, and it is difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. The prices of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up last week. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased in April, and Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. In China, the inventory of soybean oil has decreased, the inventory of palm oil has stopped decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil remains high. [7] - Strategy: The sowing of new - season US soybeans has started, and the CBOT soybean price has rebounded. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended the inversion, and Malaysia's palm oil exports have improved, but production has increased significantly. The producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. The long - term strategy is to expand the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and pay attention to short - term volatility risks during the holiday. [7][8] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybean oil reached a new high in nearly one and a half years, the prices of CBOT soybeans and China's three major oils and fats moved up, while Malaysia's palm oil was under pressure and tested the support level of 4000. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The global tariff trading sentiment has further cooled down. [12] - US Soybeans: As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, slightly faster than expected. The trading related to weather has not started yet. The consumption outlook of biodiesel is promising, and both the soybean crushing volume and biodiesel consumption in the US increased in March. [12][13] - Palm Oil: From April 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 14%, and production increased by 7 - 20% from April 1 - 20. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has recovered, and China and India's purchases have increased. SEA estimates that India's palm oil imports from May to September will be 500,000, 0, 700,000, 700,000, and 700,000 tons respectively. [12] - Import and Crushing: From January to March 2025, China's cumulative imports of soybeans were 17.109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; palm oil imports were 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%; rapeseed oil imports were 730,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%; and rapeseed imports were 898,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. The crushing rates of soybeans and rapeseed are low, the soybean inventory in oil mills has reached a nearly three - year high, and the rapeseed inventory is 300,000 - 350,000 tons. [12] - Inventory: As of mid - April 2025, the soybean oil inventory has decreased to 650,000 tons, the palm oil inventory has stopped decreasing at 350,000 - 360,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory remains above 800,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils and fats is 1.73 million tons, compared with 1.68 million tons in the same period in 2024. [12][41] - Spot: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats increased. As of April 25, the price of soybean oil was 8,407 yuan/ton, a 4.24% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,288 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase; and the price of rapeseed oil was 9,586 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase. [12][45] - Demand: As the prices recovered from previous declines, the spot trading volume of oils and fats decreased significantly last week. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 86,700 tons, compared with 282,300 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 959 tons, compared with 766 tons in the previous week; and the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, the same as in the previous week. [12][48] 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text.