高收益债2025年一季度回顾及下阶段展望：高息资产稀缺性凸显，聚焦风险收益平衡精细化择券

Core Insights - The high-yield bond market is experiencing a significant contraction, with a notable scarcity of high-interest assets, emphasizing the need for a refined balance between risk and return in bond selection [2][4][9] - The overall performance of high-yield bonds has been mixed, with net price indices generally declining, yet the wealth index shows a return that outperforms government and credit bonds [6][7][11] Market Performance - In the first quarter, the issuance of high-yield bonds was limited, with only 3 bonds issued totaling 1.41 billion, marking a year-on-year decrease of 86.36% [28][29] - The trading volume of high-yield bonds decreased by 39.55% to 58.72 billion, indicating a cooling market sentiment [33][39] - The net price index for high-yield bonds fell by 0.92%, reflecting the impact of market volatility and tightening monetary policy [12][21] Sector Analysis - The real estate sector is still in a recovery phase, with demand remaining weak and market confidence low, leading to significant valuation fluctuations in high-yield real estate bonds [21][26] - The coal industry is currently stable, with high-yield bonds primarily from state-owned enterprises showing relatively stable credit conditions, suggesting a cautious investment approach [5][21] - The chemical industry presents short-term opportunities with a safety margin, while the construction and real estate sectors lag in risk-adjusted returns [21][26] Regional Insights - Key regions such as Chongqing, Shandong, and Guangxi have shown relatively better risk-adjusted returns in high-yield bonds, while regions like Zhejiang and Jiangsu have underperformed [16][19] - The net price index for high-yield city investment bonds has generally declined, with significant drops in regions like Tianjin and Hunan [16][19] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on high-yield city investment bonds with a good safety margin, particularly in areas where debt resolution progress is swift [5][11] - The strategy should include careful selection of bonds based on fundamental support, while maintaining a cautious stance towards longer-duration bonds in the real estate sector [5][21]