铜周报：现货买盘支撑，节前铜价高位震荡-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies are gradually showing their impact, which may accelerate the recession process. The Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates, and its expected management direction is unclear, causing market concerns that the Fed will only act after a recession occurs, putting pressure on copper prices from a valuation perspective. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. - The main logic at the industrial level is whether smelting production cuts actually occur. Under the triple pressure of eroded profits, tight ore supply, and poor copper price performance, smelting difficulties are more severe than last year. Prices may fall to eliminate some production capacity, but copper prices will regain price elasticity after supply contraction [5][82]. - Before the holiday, driven by strong domestic buying sentiment, copper prices filled some gaps and maintained a relatively strong oscillating trend. However, due to continuous capital outflows from the market, the rebound space may be limited, with resistance seen at the 77,500 yuan level. After the holiday, copper prices may decline. Attention should be paid to changes in the US economy. The macro - logic has shifted, and recession trading has inertia, but there is still room for short - to medium - term games. The main price range after the holiday is expected to be between 70,000 and 77,000 yuan. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the price decline after the US economy reaches an inflection point [5][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - PMI of Major Economies: In April, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded. The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3% to 48%, and France's decreased by 0.3% to 48.2%. The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but the service level dropped 3 percentage points to 51.4%. In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the seasonal rebound trend. However, external demand dragged down the overall recovery, and the second quarter will face the pressure of seasonal off - peak and the withdrawal of macro - policies [12]. - Economic Situation and Copper Price Impact: The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies may accelerate the recession process. The Fed's unclear interest - rate policy makes the market worried, putting pressure on copper prices. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. Industrial Fundamentals - Copper Concentrate Supply: In 2024, the global copper concentrate market was in surplus. In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In February 2025, global copper mine production was 1.803 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29%, and the refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. China's copper concentrate imports also increased. In December 2024, imports were 2.522 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, cumulative imports were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In March 2025, imports were 2.394 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 7.108 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year [21][24]. - TC (Treatment and Refining Charges): As of April 25, the average domestic copper concentrate TC was - 42.52 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 7.81 US dollars from the previous week. The spot TC for scattered orders became negative and the situation worsened, but copper concentrate port inventories began to increase to 750,000 tons [28]. - Refined Copper Production: In March 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 63,900 tons month - on - month, a 6.04% increase, and a 12.27% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274,500 tons, a 9.4% increase. In April, some smelters had maintenance plans, but the overall production remained stable through adjustments in raw material input [33]. - Refined Copper Import and Export: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and exported 457,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. From January to March 2025, China imported 842,600 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.06%, and exported 117,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 156.25% [39]. - Scrap Copper Supply: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of scrap copper, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The annual cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import was 382,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.86% [42]. - Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread: The average spread between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 993 yuan per ton, up 489 yuan month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises improved marginally, and the weekly sample finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises was 2,600 tons, up 850 tons month - on - month. After the tax - related issues are resolved, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises is expected to continue to rise [46]. - Consumption - end Demand: - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, power infrastructure investment increased by 12.14% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 15.26% year - on - year. From January to March 2025, power infrastructure investment decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year [50]. - Air - conditioner Production: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the cumulative production from January to December was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to March 2025, the air - conditioner production was 74.4576 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [55]. - Automobile Production: In March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. From January to March, automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 3.182 million and 3.075 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 50.4% and 47.1% [57]. - Real - estate Market: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In March 2025, the real - estate completion area was 131 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 24.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements - Inventory: As of April 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 452,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 203,500 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 54,800 tons to 116,800 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,850 tons to 132,000 tons. As of April 24, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 88,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous week [62]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Position: As of April 22, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,765 lots, an increase of 5,288 lots week - on - week. Non - commercial long positions were 78,607 lots, up 3,145 lots week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 53,842 lots, down 2,143 lots week - on - week. Although the non - commercial long position reached a four - month low, it remained in a net - long state [66]. - Premium and Discount: As of April 25, the LME copper spot discount was 16.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot premium and discount fluctuated. In China, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The domestic spot premium is expected to rise above 200 yuan per ton before the May Day holiday [76]. - Basis: As of April 25, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 840 yuan per ton [78].