可转债周报：2025年还会出现大面积的转债破面吗？-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, it is highly unlikely that there will be a large - scale breach of face value or bottom value in the convertible bond market. Instead, it is expected to be a targeted adjustment of key high - risk individual bonds with a controllable scope and limited degree. Concerns about a large - scale price decline can be alleviated, but it may not be the right time to trade high - risk low - priced individual bonds recently, and the trading pace can be slowed down [1][28]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Will There Be a Large - Scale Breach of Convertible Bond Face Value in 2025? - In 2021, the credit shock in the pure - bond market was transmitted to the convertible bond market. However, in 2025, the credit environment in the bond market is stable, and the convertible bond market has a strong learning effect. So, it is unlikely that a pure - bond credit crisis will lead to an increase in the convertible bond breach - of - face - value rate [5][9]. - In 2018 and 2024, the common factor was the bear market in the equity market, which led to a rapid decline in the convertible bond conversion expectations. In 2025, the convertible bond parity structure and medium - to - long - term profitability remain healthy, and policies are in place to support the capital market, so there is no risk of large - scale convertible bond breaches caused by the equity market [5][13]. - In 2018 and 2024, the capital of "fixed - income +" funds also exerted significant pressure on the convertible bond market. But since Q3 2024, the share and scale of "fixed - income +" funds with a high proportion of convertible bonds have increased significantly, indicating a healthy capital situation [5][16]. - The recent slight increase in the breach - of - bottom - value rate is mainly due to the continuous rise in the bond floor. The convertible bond price risk is controllable as the average convertible bond price remains at a relatively high level [5][24]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuations Increased 3.2.1 Weekly Market Performance - Last week, most major stock indices rose, and the convertible bond market also increased. There are 478 issued but unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 69.9752 billion yuan. The Weice Convertible Bond has not been listed for trading yet, and there are no convertible bonds scheduled for issuance [33]. - In the Shenwan primary industry index, most sectors in the equity market rose last week. The automobile, basic chemicals, machinery, public utilities, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, banking, social services, real estate, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. In the convertible bond market, the basic chemicals, media, building materials, automobile, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, with only the environmental protection sector declining [36]. - Among popular concepts, most concepts rose last week. The PEEK materials, contribution to rising points, pet economy, automobile parts selection, Yushu robot, optical communication, optical chip, chemical raw material selection, integrated die - casting, and fluorine chemical concepts led the gains, while the beverage manufacturing selection, cement manufacturing selection, air transportation selection, ice and snow tourism, stem cells, semiconductor selection, TOPCON battery, ASIC chip, GPU, and anti - tariff concepts led the losses [36]. 3.2.2 Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 117.36 yuan, a 0.89% increase from the previous Friday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 153.50 yuan, a 1.51% increase; that of bond - biased convertible bonds was 109.56 yuan, a 0.36% increase; and that of balanced convertible bonds was 120.29 yuan, a 0.54% increase. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 (inclusive) price range decreased significantly. The median price was 119.34 yuan, a 1.42% increase from the previous Friday [40]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value convertible bonds in the market was 23.54%, a 1.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous Friday. In terms of rating and scale, the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased. The conversion premium rate of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased by 1.33 percentage points, and that of convertible bonds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan increased by 1.7 percentage points. In terms of the parity range, the conversion premium rate of the 80 - 90 (inclusive) yuan parity range increased by 2.37 percentage points significantly [40]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Feikai and Huaxiang Convertible Bonds Announced Redemption, and the Approval of Convertible Bonds by the CSRC Is Acceptable 3.3.1 Terms - As of April 25, Feikai and Huaxiang Convertible Bonds announced redemption; Limin Convertible Bond announced no early redemption; and no convertible bonds announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions. - As of April 25, the boards of Jieneng, Fengyu, and Wanshun Zhuan 2 proposed downward adjustments. Linggang (reached the condition) and Haiyou Convertible Bond (did not reach the condition) announced downward - adjustment results. Twenty - seven convertible bonds announced no downward adjustment, and 20 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward adjustments [2][61]. 3.3.2 Primary Market - Qingyuan, Anji, and Dinglong Convertible Bonds were newly listed last week, with a total scale of 2.241 billion yuan. No convertible bonds were issued last week [3][63]. - The approval of convertible bonds by the CSRC is acceptable, and the scale of convertible bonds to be issued is approximately 18.5 billion yuan. Last week, 2 companies added board proposals, 3 companies passed the general meeting of shareholders, 1 company passed the review by the Issuance Examination Committee, and no new approvals were obtained from the CSRC, an increase of 2, 3, 1, and 0 respectively compared with the same period last year. As of April 25, 6 listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 12.966 billion yuan. Seven listed companies passed the Issuance Examination Committee, with a total scale of 4.305 billion yuan. Last week, Huawei Technology and Kaibeiyi added board proposals, with a total scale of 1.315 billion yuan [3][64][71].