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3月工业企业利润点评:盈利驱动在于量增
Huachuang Securities·2025-04-28 12:06
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the year - on - year profit of large - scale industrial enterprises turned positive to 2.5%, and the profit momentum improved marginally. The increase in quantity, driven by the "rush to export" and inventory replenishment, was the main reason for the profit recovery, despite the expanding year - on - year decline in PPI [26]. - The profit shares of the mid - and downstream industries increased compared to January - February, while the upstream share decreased. The mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry performed well with an expanding year - on - year increase, and the profit growth rates of optional and necessary consumer goods in the downstream weakened [26]. - Looking ahead, the "rush to export" rhythm may slow down in the second quarter. The industrial enterprise profit momentum may weaken marginally due to the potential impact of export slowdown on PPI and sales volume. However, with the "Four Stabilities" policy and possible incremental policies in the middle of the year, the profit recovery may gradually shift to domestic demand such as consumption and investment [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: "Rush to Export" Boosts Mid - and Downstream Performance - Upstream: The year - on - year decline in the mining industry widened, and the energy supply industry turned from positive to negative in terms of profit growth. For example, coal and oil and gas mining saw an expanded decline in profit, while non - metallic mining turned from negative to positive [9][18]. - Mid - stream: The year - on - year profit turned positive, and the equipment manufacturing industry outperformed the material processing industry. The profit of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, and the material processing industry also had a positive growth rate of 18% [19][21]. - Downstream: The growth rate of necessary consumer goods slowed down, and the profit of optional consumer goods weakened. However, the electronic equipment industry still performed strongly [20][21]. 3.2 Cost End: Marginal Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to March, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income for large - scale industrial enterprises was 85.37 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 yuan and a 0.26 - yuan increase from January - February. The cost pressure increased marginally. - The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.43 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16 yuan and a 0.13 - yuan decrease from January - February, indicating significant cost - reduction effects. - The cumulative operating income profit margin was 4.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 pct but a 0.17 - pct increase from January - February, showing a slow improvement in profit efficiency [22]. 3.3 Inventory: Slight Replenishment of Actual Inventory - By the end of March, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.55 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, a 0.1 - pct increase from the end of February. After excluding PPI, the actual inventory growth rate was 6.7%, higher than 6.4% in February, indicating a slight replenishment [25]. - From January to March, the turnover days of finished - product inventory were 21.2 days, a 0.1 - day increase year - on - year but a 1.1 - day decrease from January - February. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.9 days, a 4.0 - day increase year - on - year but a 4.0 - day decrease from January - February. Although the turnover and collection speed were still slower than the same period, there was a marginal improvement [25]. - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of single - month operating income rose to 4.4%. Considering the expanding price decline, the actual destocking rhythm accelerated compared to January - February [25].