市场主流观点汇总-20250428

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [2]. Market Data Summary Commodities - Palm oil closed at 8218.00 with a weekly increase of 3.00%; corn at 2324.00 with a 2.10% increase; copper at 77890.00 with a 1.71% increase; etc. Gold decreased by 0.48%, PVC by 1.41%, and生猪 by 2.18% [3]. A - shares - The CSI 500 increased by 1.20%, the SSE 300 by 0.38%, while the SSE 50 decreased by 0.33% [3]. Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index increased by 6.73%, the S&P 500 by 4.59%, the French CAC40 by 3.44%, etc. [3]. Bonds - The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2.54%, the 5 - year by 2.43%, and the 10 - year by 0.82% [3]. Foreign Exchange - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.36%, the US Dollar mid - price remained unchanged, and the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.28% [3]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive signals from the Politburo meeting, diverse domestic policy tools, central bank's MLF operation, fiscal policy support, and Fed rate - cut expectations [4]. - Bearish logic: Uncertain US tariff policy, low trading volume, stable LPR, pre - holiday risk - aversion, and lack of upward momentum [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, all expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Policy expectations of "timely RRR and interest rate cuts", reduced pressure on the bond market, central bank's net capital injection, and external uncertainty [4]. - Bearish logic: Higher - than - expected Q1 GDP, potential impact of tariffs on April data, and tight liquidity at the end of April [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase, slowdown in US shale oil supply, approaching peak demand season, low US refined oil inventory, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. - Bearish logic: Disagreements within OPEC+ due to Kazakhstan's non - compliance, limited oil price rebound, expected supply increase, and weak market sentiment [5]. Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Uncertain South American weather, high Brazilian soybean premium, low domestic soybean meal inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand [5]. - Bearish logic: Expected increase in Brazilian soybean arrivals, fast US soybean sowing, post - holiday supply expectations, and potential increase in domestic oil refinery operation rate [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 3 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Eased macro sentiment, strong May consumption, continuous reduction in aluminum ingot inventory, and increased downstream demand [6]. - Bearish logic: Approaching end of peak season, weakening downstream consumption, negative growth in aluminum exports, and limited upside space [6]. Chemicals Sector Soda Ash - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Increased maintenance plans in May, improved demand from photovoltaic glass, and pre - holiday restocking [6]. - Bearish logic: Long - term new capacity pressure, weak traditional demand, signs of weakness in the photovoltaic industry, low downstream stocking willingness, and high inventory [6]. Precious Metals Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, all expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and China's continuous gold reserve increase [7]. - Bearish logic: US Dollar Index rebound, reduced risk - aversion, policy uncertainty, and technical correction pressure [7]. Black Metals Sector Rebar - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions, 2 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Continuous inventory reduction, expected supply contraction, good spot market trading, and resilient external demand [7]. - Bearish logic: Decline in apparent demand, high iron - water production, limited cost support, and weak construction steel demand [7].