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蓝晓科技(300487):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:基本仓业务持续高增,静待国产替代加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's basic warehouse business continues to grow significantly, with a focus on accelerating domestic substitution [2]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 787 million yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in high-margin segments, particularly in ion exchange adsorption resins, which generated 1.99 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 27.6% year-on-year growth [9][10]. - The report notes that external factors have impacted revenue from major projects, particularly a significant decline in revenue from lithium extraction projects [9][10]. - The ongoing anti-monopoly investigation into DuPont is expected to accelerate the company's penetration into high-end markets [9][10]. - The investment recommendation is based on the current pace of domestic substitution and the potential revenue recognition from major projects, projecting net profits of 1.012 billion yuan, 1.262 billion yuan, and 1.526 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025 to be 3.209 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.6% [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.012 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 28.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.55 yuan in 2024 to 1.99 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 59.70 yuan, compared to the current price of 44.11 yuan [5].