Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polyester: Not rated - Chlor - alkali: Not rated - Glass and Soda Ash: Not rated Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows different trends in various products. Some are affected by supply - demand changes, events, and seasonal factors, with some products having potential price fluctuations and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port has limited theoretical impact on methanol exports, but the methanol futures price rose due to sentiment. Import arrivals are low, and coastal areas had significant inventory reduction last week. The utilization rate of inland plants is decreasing, and production enterprise inventories are low. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream procurement slows. Future supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season, with supply - demand turning to be more relaxed [2] Urea - The urea futures price rose, and spot trading improved slightly. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weakening, while supply remains high. Production enterprise inventories decreased significantly this week. Daily production is expected to further increase, and supply - demand contradictions may emerge after the peak agricultural procurement season [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures continued to move sideways. For polyethylene, demand is weakening, and the market has a bearish outlook due to policy changes. For polypropylene, supply pressure is not high, but demand is poor, and the weak buying sentiment drags down the price [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. There is no positive cost - side driver, and with the planned resumption of some plants and weak downstream demand, supply - demand contradictions may increase as the May Day holiday approaches [6] Polyester - The polyester industry's supply - demand is improving, but there is a potential risk of production cuts due to poor profits. For PTA, supply is expected to decrease, and there is a chance to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand drive is limited, and short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are affected by raw materials and demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures are running at a low level. Enterprise inventories have decreased, but domestic demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. For caustic soda, the operating rate has increased, and inventories are still at a medium - high level. With poor downstream profits, the price may also run at a low level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures are oscillating at a low level. Factory inventories increased slightly last week, and the industry profit fluctuates narrowly. The price may have limited downside and is expected to be supported at around 1100 yuan. Soda ash futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term due to low - price restocking and planned maintenance in May, but there may be short - selling opportunities in the long - term [9]
化工日报-20250428
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-04-28 12:23