双粕周报：近期市场供应偏紧炒作，双粕先反弹后调整-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the global soybean market, the US soybean planting progress is 8%, higher than 7% last year, and the future 15 - day rainfall outlook is favorable. South American soybean production is basically a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, although the supply of soybeans is increasing, the current inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be tight around the Labor Day and will gradually ease after the holiday. With a positive outlook for feed consumption, soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term [4][5][6]. - Regarding rapeseed, although China's rapeseed imports decreased in March, the demand for Canadian rapeseed is strong, and the price has risen. The new rapeseed production in the EU is expected to be stable. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure of rapeseed meal is large, but the consumption of rapeseed meal is expected to increase due to the start of aquaculture. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in rapeseed meal [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Market - Soybean: The US soybean planting rate as of April 20 is 8%, higher than market expectations. The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending April 17 was 55.09 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate as of April 19 is 92.5%. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated at 49 million tons [27][30]. - Rapeseed: China's rapeseed imports in March decreased, but Canadian rapeseed demand and exports are strong. The EU's rapeseed import data increased year - on - year. The new rapeseed production in the EU is expected to be stable, and Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase slightly [8]. Domestic Market - Supply and Inventory - Soybean: As of April 18, the national port soybean inventory is 4.705 million tons, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory is 4.2591 million tons. The soybean meal inventory is 125,500 tons, a significant decrease from last week [32][40]. - Rapeseed: As of April 18, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 320,000 tons. The national main - area rapeseed meal inventory is 623,500 tons, an increase from last week [47][51]. - Consumption - Soybean Meal: The downstream livestock and poultry inventories are in good condition, and the feed consumption is expected to be optimistic. The first - quarter pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: The start of aquaculture is beneficial for rapeseed meal consumption, but the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased due to price changes [9]. - Price and Spread - Soybean Meal: As of April 25, the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts in Jiangsu is 762 yuan/ton and 669 yuan/ton respectively, and the 9 - 5 spread is 93 yuan/ton [42]. - Rapeseed Meal: As of April 25, the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts in Nantong is 30 yuan/ton and - 84 yuan/ton respectively, and the 9 - 5 spread is 114 yuan/ton. The futures 09 - contract and spot spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are 347 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [53][56]. Trade Situation - The US - China trade situation has been tense, with multiple rounds of tariff increases. The US has imposed high - level tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has also taken corresponding counter - measures, including increasing tariffs on US imports, listing US entities on the export - control list, and filing lawsuits at the WTO [17][19][23].