Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and potential relaxation of European storage targets, leading to a global price drop in gas [1][10] - It emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of increased tariffs on US LNG imports, particularly for companies with US gas sources [48] Price Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, global gas prices have decreased week-on-week: US HH by 7.2%, European TTF by 8.6%, East Asia JKM by 6.7%, and China's LNG ex-factory price by 0.6% [10][11] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 1,113 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.9% to 957 billion cubic feet per day [16][22] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a weak seasonal demand, with US natural gas prices dropping significantly [16] - European gas consumption in 2025M1 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but overall consumption has been reduced due to the search for alternative energy sources [18] - Domestic gas prices in China decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with a year-on-year apparent consumption decline of 1.8% [22][27] Pricing Progress - The report indicates that 61% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with a price increase of 0.20 yuan per cubic meter [37] Important Events - The EU Commission voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, alleviating downstream replenishment pressure and improving market sentiment [18][44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from a more favorable pricing mechanism, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [48] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, like Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [48]
燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：淡季到来、欧洲储库目标或放松，全球气价回落
Soochow Securities·2025-04-28 12:23