贵金属日报-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold is a relatively certain investment target due to the dual risks of the US dollar's credit and economic prospects, and its medium - to long - term price trend is upward, while short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance [1] - The market risk appetite will be relatively pressured before the situation of tariff policies becomes clear, and commodities will maintain wide - range fluctuations [1] - The global economic growth rate is expected to decline in 2025, and almost all countries' economic growth forecasts have been lowered, with the US growth rate dropping to 1.8% [1] - The value of gold allocation is prominent, and global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase [1] - Attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 "Gold Demand Trends" report [1] - During the period around the May Day holiday, pay attention to position control and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Related Content Tariff Policy - Trump will set "fair" tariff prices for different countries, is unlikely to suspend tariffs for 90 days again, and expects a trade agreement to be reached in three to four weeks [1][2] - The US Trade Representative's Office states that Trump will ultimately decide whether to advance alternative measures to cancel or reduce the current 10% tariffs on relevant countries [2] - The US - Japan finance ministers' meeting did not set exchange - rate targets, Japan is considering increasing US corn imports, and Trump says he is close to reaching a trade agreement with Japan [2] Federal Reserve - Harmaak believes that if economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June [2] - Waller thinks it will be July to have a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy, and if tariffs lead to a rise in unemployment, the Fed may start cutting interest rates [2] - Kashkari says the frequent announcements from Washington pose challenges to policymakers and everyone [2] Economic Forecast - The IMF's latest "World Economic Outlook Report" predicts that the global economic growth in 2025 will drop from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8%, and the US growth rate will decline by 1 percentage point to 1.8% [1] Gold Market - The price of gold is in a medium - to long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance. Key US economic data will be released this week [1] - Global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase, and attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 report [1]